Climă/Teme de date INSPIRE (în conformitate cu anexele la Directiva 2007/2/CE ) / 2023_Romania_GHG Projections.pdf

apacities and integration of RES into heat production for the centralised heating systems. According to the plan, the implementation of cogeneration units or the rehabilitation of existing ones is underlined as a priority for several local communities in Romania: 27 • Implementation of a combined cycle cogeneration unit in Grozavesti Combined Heat and Power Plant CHPP, which involves the construction of a new high energy efficient cogeneration unit (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine - CCGT technology), operating on natural gas • Implementation of a combined cycle cogeneration unit in Bucuresti Sud CHPP, which involves the construction of a new highly efficient cogeneration unit (CCGT technology) of about 200 MWe and about 200 MWt • Implementation of a new highly efficient cogeneration capacity, on natural gas, in Progresu CHPP • Rehabilitation of the combined cycle in Bucuresti Vest CHPP, to extending the lifetime period; implementation of new combined cycle unit of approx.186 MWe and approx. 170 Gcal/h • Implementation of a new cogeneration power plant (CHPP), operating on natural gas, at Govora CHPP • Implementation of a new cogeneration unit at Midia CHPP (around 70 MW) • In the WAM scenario it is designed to increase the amount of renewable energy used in district heating systems (DHS), with geothermal energy, from 31 ktoe in 2016 to 45 ktoe at 2030 level. This above planning is envisaged in the case of the scenario with measures for 2020-2040 period. In the scenario with additional measures (WAM), it is expected that the installed capacity in wind and photovoltaic power plants to be supplemented by about 2000 MW in 2030÷2040 period. Table 2-10 shows the structure of electricity generation in the 2020÷2050 period for the WEM and WAM scenarios. Table 2-10 Structure of electricity generation, 2005÷2050 Specification/Scenario/Year Scenario 2005 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection Total electricity generation 59412 55934 61252 63163 64210 65182 68530 70260 (GWh), out of which based on: • Liquid fuel 1816 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 • Solid fuel 21915 9360 5530 0 0 0 0 0 • Gaseous fuel WEM 9612 10005 14700 11960 5379 5055 2085 0 • Renewable resources 20207 24380 28921 38041 39718 42009 43337 45680 • Uranium 5555 11354 11400 12400 18319 17319 22108 23380 • Biomass 307 818 701 762 794 799 1000 1200 Total electricity generation 59412 55934 61252 63163 64210 65182 68530 70260 (GWh), out of which based on: • Liquid fuel 1816 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 • Solid fuel 21915 9360 5530 0 0 0 0 0 • Gaseous fuel WAM 9612 10005 14700 11816 4950 2157 1050 0 • Renewable resources 20207 24380 28921 38185 40147 42226 43872 45680 • Uranium 5555 11354 11400 12400 18319 20000 22608 23380 • Biomass 307 818 701 762 794 799 1000 1200 In accordance with the structure of the electricity generation, the total demand for energy resources (fuel) is resulting and is presented in Table 2-11. 28 Table 2-11 Energy resources (fuel) demand structure in 2020÷2050 Specification/Scenario/Year Scenario 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection Total demand for energy resources 222.20 128.69 49.49 54.57 59.45 26.93 4.27 in PJ, out of which based on: • Liquid fuel 4.510 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEM • Solid fuel 114.445 63.16 0 0 0 0 0 • Gaseous fuel 97.762 62.92 46.65 51.73 56.60 23.37 0 • Biomass 5.483 2.61 2.84 2.84 2.85 3.56 4.27 Total demand for energy resources 222.20 128.69 49.49 54.57 33.55 18.5 4.27 in PJ, out of which based on: • Liquid fuel 4.510 0 0 0 0 0 0 WAM • Solid fuel 114.445 63.16 0 0 0 0 0 • Gaseous fuel 97.762 62.92 46.65 51.73 30.70 14.94 0 • Biomass 5.483 2.61 2.84 2.84 2.85 3.56 4.27 In tables 2-12, 2-13, 2-14 are presented the GHG emissions evolution in the 2018÷2050 period in the WOM, WEM and WAM scenarios. Table 2-12 Evolution of CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050, in the analysed scenarios Scenario Total emissions (kt CO2) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 33280.61 33280.61 33280.61 33280.61 33280.61 33280.61 WEM 33280.61 22320.59 15213.04 8717.88 2597.47 2880.33 3151.49 1301.24 0.00 WAM 8717.88 2597.47 2880.33 1709.38 831.86 0.00 Table 2-13 Evolution of CH4 emissions from 2005 to 2050, in the analysed scenarios Scenario Total emissions (kt CH4) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 WEM 0.50 0.43 0.38 0.20 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 WAM 0.20 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.13 Table 2-14 Evolution of N2O emissions from 2005 to 2050, in the analysed scenarios Scenario Total emissions (kt N2O) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 WEM 0.38 0.30 0.20 0.11 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 WAM 0.11 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 29 Refineries The refining sector in Romania consists of four operational refineries: Petrobrazi (owned by OMV Petrom), Petromidia and Vega (owned by Rompetrol), Petrotel (owned by Lukoil), which have a total operating capacity of approximately 12 million tons per year. Romanian refineries purchase domestic crude oil production and import about two-thirds of what is needed, currently having an operating capacity of 12 million t /year. In 2017, refineries in Romania processed 11.2 million tons of crude oil and additives (gross domestic deliveries were 11.17 million tons of crude oil and additives, out of which 3.52 million tons from domestic production), resulting: 5.47 million tons of diesel; 1.55 million tons of gasoline and kerosene; 0.56 million tons of coke oil; 0.7 million tons of LPG; 0.38 million tons of fuel oil; 0.2 million tons of naphtha; 0.5 million tons of refinery gas and 0.81 million tons of other refinery products. The total consumption of petroleum products was 9.45 million tons. In 2018, the net import of crude oil was 8.265 million tons, mainly from Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, but also from Azerbaijan, Iraq, Libya and Turkmenistan, while imports of petroleum products were about 3.290 million tons. Romania is an exporter of petroleum products - according to statistics. In 2018, Romania exported petroleum fuels and lubricants worth 2285.3 million euros (of which 943.4 million euros for engines fuels). According to the Order no. 1401/2020 or the Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests (MMAP) for the approval of the number of GHG emission certificates allocated free of charge, related to the year 2020, for each installation in the stationary sector in which one or more activities provided in Annex 1 to GD no. 780/2006, 4 refineries are operational at national level; the fuels used in the combustion processes in the refineries falling under the EU-ETS, according to the GHG Emissions Authorizations issued for the period 2013÷2020, are presented in Table 2-15. Table 2-15 Fuels used in combustion processes in refineries Name of the company Fuels used SC Rompetrol Rafinăria SA VEGA - Workstation Rafinăria Natural gas, fuel oil, torch gas Vega Ploieşti SC OMV SA - Petrobrazi Refinery gas, natural gas, fuel oil, torch gas, diesel SC Rompetrol Rafinare - Workstation Petromidia Refinery gas, natural gas, torch gas SC Petrotel – Lukoil SA Refinery gas, natural gas The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis estimated the projections regarding the energy balance of Romania for the period 2020÷2050, resulting the demand for liquid fuel to be used in industry, transport, agriculture, services, etc. From the Energy Balance forecast prepared by the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (NCSP), it appears that between 2022 to 2050, Romania will extract crude oil and import crude oil for processing in refineries. Table 2-16 shows the forecast quantities of crude oil to be processed in the 4 operational refineries. Table 2-16 Evolution of crude oil processing in Romania (thousand toe) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Extracted oil 3382 3243 3045 2975 2907 2840 2567 2332 2440 1900 1710 Imported oil 7071 6909 7634 8131 8643 9136 11158 12275 13155 13980 14480 TOTAL 10453 10152 10679 11106 11550 11976 13725 14607 15595 15880 16190 30 To cover domestic liquid fuel demand, the four existing refineries will efficiently use their operational capacity of 12 million t/year. Thus, in the period 2020÷2050, for operating at this capacity, the fuel demand that must be ensured in the refineries is shown in table 2-17, considering the requirements of NAPEE IV and NECP. Table 2-17 Energy demand evolution for refineries, 2005÷2050 Fuel demand, in PJ 2005 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection Liquid fuel 49.305 25.856 24.736 25.92 29.16 30.9 31.95 32.67 33.16 Solid fuel - - 0.081 - - - - - - Gaseous fuel 12.549 8.431 5.307 8.594 10.4 11.2 13.0 13.1 13.5 Biomass - 0.047 0.001 - - - - - - Other fuels 0.919 - - - - - - - - TOTAL (PJ) 62.773 34.334 30.125 34.514 39.56 42.10 44.95 45.77 46.66 Considering that no information is available on measures taken by economic operators to increase energy efficiency and reduce GHG emissions, the same GHG emission trends are considered for all refineries in the three scenarios. In tables 2-18, 2-19, 2-20 the GHG emissions evolution between 2020÷2050 for all scenarios are shown. Table 2-18 The CO2 emissions from refineries, 2020÷2050 Total emissions (kt CO2) Scenario 2005 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 4033.28 1883.46 4033.28 4033.28 4033.28 4033.28 4033.28 4033.28 WEM, WAM 4033.28 1883.46 2289.20 2447.10 2603.25 2771.82 2823.39 2877.22 Table 2-19 The CH4 emissions from refineries, 2020÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt CH4) 2005 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 0.12 0.04 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 WEM, WAM 0.12 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 Table 2-20 The N2O emissions from refineries, 2018÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt N2O) 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 WEM, WAM 0.02 0.01 0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Fuel production and other energy industries According to Romania's Energy Balance, electricity, liquid, and gaseous fuels are required for the extraction and handling of coal, oil and natural gas. Table 2-21 shows the evolution of fuel requirements in the years 2005, 2010, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2020 according to the data used in NGHGI 2020. 31 Table 2-21 Evolution of fuel demand for fuel preparation in the period 2005÷2020 Fuel type 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 Quantity (PJ) Liquid fuels 22.805 12.053 8.421 9.962 11.92 12.768 Solid fuels 6.70 0.08 0.007 0.002 0.0003 0.00 Gaseous fuels 28.063 17.015 10.212 9.139 5.03 4.383 Biomass 0.006 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.004 0.0007 TOTAL 57.575 29.148 18.642 19.103 16.954 17.152 Fossil fuels in Table 2-21 were used in combustion processes resulting the GHG emissions in Table 2-22. In 2022, according to NGHGI 2020 these emissions were 3.18 % from the total amount of GHS emissions. Table 2-22 Evolution of GHG emissions from fossil fuel preparation 2005÷2020 Type of GHG 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019 2020 Quantity (kt) CO2 3528.12 1802.06 11162.76 1212.58 1131.95