Climă/Teme de date INSPIRE (în conformitate cu anexele la Directiva 2007/2/CE ) / 2023_Romania_GHG Projections.pdf

Romania’s Report on projections of GHG emission was prepared in collaboration with: Beia Consult International ▪ Dr. Mihaela BĂLĂNESCU (coordinator); ▪ Drd. Andreea BĂDICU; ▪ Dr. George SUCIU; ▪ Cătălin SURU; ▪ Dr. Cristina BĂLĂCEANU; ▪ Adrian PASAT; ▪ Lucian NECULA. Institute for Studies and Power Engineering ▪ Dr. Claudia TOMESCU; ▪ Dr. Anca POPESCU; ▪ Irene SAMOILĂ; ▪ Dr. Marian DOBRIN; ▪ Dr. Valentin RUSU; ▪ Camelia VASILE; ▪ Gloria POPESCU; ▪ Ileana CONSTATINESCU. University of Agronomic Sciences and Veterinary Medicine of Bucharest ▪ Dr. Dana-Cătălina POPA; ▪ Dr. Vasilica STAN; ▪ Dr. Răzvan POPA. National Research and Development Institute for Cryogenic and Isotopic Technologies ▪ Dr. Remus GRIGORESCU; ▪ Felicia BUCURA; ▪ Dr. Marius CONSTANTINESCU. National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry “Marin Drăcea” ▪ Dr. Raul-Gheorghe RADU; ▪ Mihai HAPA; ▪ Ștefan PETREA. Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests ▪ Gherghița NICODIM – Head of the Climate Strategies and Reporting Department; ▪ Tudor CULIC – Senior Counsellor; ▪ Maria FAINĂ - Senior Counsellor; ▪ Evelina-Floriana DASCĂLU - Senior Counsellor; ▪ Laurențiu RADU – Principal Counsellor; ▪ Maria-Claudia AARON-ANDRIEȘ - Counsellor for European Affairs; ▪ Ioana-Maria VASILIU - Counsellor for European Affairs. Romanian Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests Libertății Boulevard 12, District 5, Bucharest, Romania E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.mmediu.ro Phone: +4021 408 9542 March 2023 1 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1 LULUCF sector structure ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2-1 Carbon intensity related to the LULUCF sector ........................................................................................................ 76 Figure 2-2 LULUCF GHG evolution ............................................................................................................................................ 77 Figure 2-3 LULUCF’s Sector trends by gas .................................................................................................................................. 78 Figure 2-4 The cumulated 4A1, 4A2, 4G category historical GHG emissions-removals ............................................................ 79 Figure 2-5 Non-forestlands, specific GHG emissions-removals distribution ............................................................................. 81 Figure 2-6 GHG emissions-removals levels vs. the targets proposed by the LULUCF Regulation (NGHGI 2022) ...................... 84 Figure 2-7 LULUCF Sector’s GHG emissions-removals projections related to WOM, WEM, WAM scenarios ........................... 85 Figure 2-8 Comparison of projections related to previous submission - LULUCF sector .......................................................... 87 Figure 5-1 Sensitivity analysis related to LULUCF sector ......................................................................................................... 120 2 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1 Categories and GHG emissions from the Industrial Processes and Product Use sector ............................................ 12 Table 1-2 Surfaces of the Land use in Romania, 1989-2020 ...................................................................................................... 15 Table 2-1 Average annual GDP growth rate (%), 2005÷2050 .................................................................................................... 21 Table 2-2 Average annual GDP growth rate (%) considered in the GHG projections, 2005÷2050 ............................................ 21 Table 2-3 GVA structure by branches (%), 2020÷2050 .............................................................................................................. 22 Table 2-4 Macroeconomic indicators in the period 2005÷2050 ................................................................................................ 22 Table 2-5 Forecast of primary energy consumption and final energy consumption [thou toe] ................................................ 23 Table 2-6 Assumptions considering the evolution of import fuel prices in the 2022÷2040 period, according to EC recommendation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Table 2-7 ETS certificates price over the period 2022÷2040 ..................................................................................................... 25 Table 2-8 Development of domestic consumption and production of electricity, 2005÷2050 ................................................. 25 Table 2-9 Installed capacity in Romanian power plants in 2020 ............................................................................................... 25 Table 2-10 Structure of electricity generation, 2005÷2050 ....................................................................................................... 27 Table 2-11 Energy resources (fuel) demand structure in 2020÷2050 ....................................................................................... 28 Table 2-12 Evolution of CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050, in the analysed scenarios ............................................................. 28 Table 2-13 Evolution of CH4 emissions from 2005 to 2050, in the analysed scenarios ............................................................. 28 Table 2-14 Evolution of N2O emissions from 2005 to 2050, in the analysed scenarios ............................................................ 28 Table 2-15 Fuels used in combustion processes in refineries.................................................................................................... 29 Table 2-16 Evolution of crude oil processing in Romania (thousand toe) ................................................................................. 29 Table 2-17 Energy demand evolution for refineries, 2005÷2050 .............................................................................................. 30 Table 2-18 The CO2 emissions from refineries, 2020÷2050 ....................................................................................................... 30 Table 2-19 The CH4 emissions from refineries, 2020÷2050 ....................................................................................................... 30 Table 2-20 The N2O emissions from refineries, 2018÷2050 ...................................................................................................... 30 Table 2-21 Evolution of fuel demand for fuel preparation in the period 2005÷2020 ............................................................... 31 Table 2-22 Evolution of GHG emissions from fossil fuel preparation 2005÷2020 ..................................................................... 31 Table 2-23 Evolution of fuel demand for fuel preparation in the period 2020÷2050 in all scenarios ....................................... 31 Table 2-24 Evolution of GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the period 2020÷2050 in all scenarios ....................... 32 Table 2-25 The evolution of fugitive GHG emissions in 2005, 2018 and 2020 .......................................................................... 32 Table 2-26 The CH4 emissions (kt) from fugitive emissions from fuel category, 2018÷2050 .................................................... 33 Table 2-27 The evolution of CO2 emissions (kt) from fugitive emissions from fuel category, 2020÷2050 ................................ 34 Table 2-28 Alternative forms of energy by end-use categories for the industry sector ............................................................ 34 Table 2-29 The energy demand in the period 2020÷2050, for the industry and construction sector ...................................... 34 Table 2-30 Fuel demand (PJ) over the period 2005÷2050, for the industry and construction sector ....................................... 35 Table 2-31 The CO2 emissions from the industry and construction sector, 2005÷2050 ........................................................... 35 Table 2-32 The CH4 emissions from the industry and construction sector, 2005÷2050 ............................................................ 35 Table 2-33 The N2O emissions from the industry and construction sector, 2005÷2050 ........................................................... 36 Table 2-34 Freight transport evolution during 2015÷2020 ....................................................................................................... 36 Table 2-35 Passenger transport evolution during 2015÷2020 .................................................................................................. 37 Table 2-36 Evolution of energy demand in the transport sector, 2020÷2050........................................................................... 37 Table 2-37 Fuel demand in the transport sector in the WEM scenario, 2018-2050.................................................................. 38 Table 2-38 Fuel demand in the transport sector in the WAM scenario, 2018-2050 ................................................................. 38 Table 2-39 The CO2 emissions in the transport sector, 2018÷2050........................................................................................... 39 Table 2-40 The CH4 emissions in the transport sector, 2018÷2050 ........................................................................................... 39 Table 2-41 The N2O emissions in the transport sector, 2018÷2050 .......................................................................................... 39 Table 2-42 The final energy consumption in the services sector, 2020÷2050........................................................................... 40 3 Table 2-43 The fuel consumption between 2020÷2050 in WEM and WAM scenarios, in the services sector ......................... 40 Table 2-44 The CO2 emissions in the services sector, 2019 – 2050 ........................................................................................... 41 Table 2-45 The CH4 emissions in the services sector, 2019 – 2050 ........................................................................................... 41 Table 2-46 The N2O emissions in the services sector, 2019 – 2050........................................................................................... 41 Table 2-47 Evolution of average surface for a dwelling, [m2] ................................................................................................... 41 Table 2-48 Estimated energy demand for the residential sector, 2020 – 2050 ........................................................................ 42 Table 2-49 The fuel demand in the residential sector, 2018÷2050 ........................................................................................... 42 Table 2-50 The CO2 emissions in the residential sector, 2018÷2050 ......................................................................................... 42 Table 2-51 The CH4 emissions in the residential sector, 2018÷2050 ......................................................................................... 43 Table 2-52 The N2O emissions in the residential sector, 2018÷2050 ........................................................................................ 43 Table 2-53 The fuel demand for agriculture sector, 2020 ÷ 2050 ............................................................................................. 44 Table 2-54 The fuel demand for agriculture sector in WEM and WAM scenarios, 2020÷2050 ................................................ 44 Table 2-55 The CO2 emissions from fuels used in agriculture sector, 2018÷2050 .................................................................... 45 Table 2-56 The CH4 emissions from fuels used in agriculture sector, 2018 – 2050 ................................................................... 45 Table 2-57 The N2O emissions from fuels used in agriculture sector, 2018 – 2050 .................................................................. 45 Table 2-58 The CO2 emission projections for category 2A.1. Cement production, 2025-2050 ................................................. 47 Table 2-59 The CO2 emission projections from 2A.2. Lime production, 2025-2050.................................................................. 49 Table 2-60 The CO2 emission projections from 2A.3. Glass Production, 2025-2050 ................................................................. 50 Table 2-61 Projected activity data for category 2.A.4. - Other uses of carbonate category, 2025-2050 .................................. 51 Table 2-62 The CO2 emission projections for category 2.A.4. - Other uses of carbonates, 2025-2050 ..................................... 51 Table 2-63 The CO2 emissions for 2.B.1 Ammonia production category, 2020-2050................................................................ 52 Table 2-64 N2O emissions for 2.B.2 Nitric acid production category, 2020-2050 ..................................................................... 52 Table 2-65 The CH4 emissions for 2.B.5a Silicon carbide production category, 2020-2050 ...................................................... 53 Table 2-66 The CO2 emissions for 2.B.5b calcium carbide production category, 2020-2050 .................................................... 54 Table 2-67 Overview of factories and steelmaking processes in Romania ................................................................................ 54 Table 2-68 The EFs values used in CO2 emission projections for 2.C.1. – Iron and Steel Production category ......................... 56 Table 2-69 The CO2 emission projections from 2.C.1. Iron and steel production category, 2025÷2050 ................................... 56 Table 2-70 The CH4 emission projections from 2.C.1. Iron and steel production category, 2025÷2050 ................................... 56 Table 2-71 The CO2 emission projections for 2.C.3. Aluminum production category, 2025÷2050 ........................................... 58 Table 2-72 The PFC emissions (as CO2 eq) projection from 2.C.3. Aluminum production category, 2025÷2050...................... 58 Table 2-73 The CO2 emission projections from 2.C.5. Lead production category, 2025-2050 .................................................. 59 Table 2-74 The CO2 emission projections for 2.C.6. Zinc production category, 2025-2050 ...................................................... 60 Table 2-75 The CO2 emission of for 2.D.- Non-energy products from fuels and solvent use category, 2025-2050 .................. 60 Table 2-76 The HFC emissions (as CO2eq) projected for 2.F category, 2025-2050 ..................................................................... 62 Table 2-77 The PFC emissions (as CO2eq) projections for the 2.F category, 2025-2050............................................................. 62 Table 2-78 N2O emissions for category 2.G - Production and use of other products, 2020-2050............................................. 63 Table 2-79 The SF6 emissions for category 2.G - Production and use of other products, 2020-2050 ....................................... 63 Table 2-80 CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation in the WOM scenario ............................................................................ 63 Table 2-81 The CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation in the WEM scenario, 2020-2050 ................................................... 64 Table 2-82 The CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation in the WAM scenario, 2020-2050 .................................................. 65 Table 2-83 The CH4 emissions from manure management in the WOM scenario, 2020-2050 ................................................. 65 Table 2-84 Direct and indirect N2O emissions from manure management in WOM scenario, 2020-2050 ............................... 66 Table 2-85 The CH4 emissions from manure management in the WEM scenario, 2020-2050.................................................. 68 Table 2-86 Direct and indirect N2O emissions from manure management in the WEM scenario, 2020-2050 ......................... 68 Table 2-87 The CH4 emissions from manure management in the WAM scenario, 2020-2050 ................................................. 69 Table 2-88 Direct and indirect N2O emissions from manure management in the WAM scenario, 2020-2050 ......................... 70 Table 2-89 N_N2O emissions resulting from the use of synthetic fertilizers with N (kt N_N2O/year) ....................................... 72 Table 2-90 N_N2O emission for FON category (kt N_N2O/year).................................................................................................. 73 Table 2-91 Emissions of N_N2O for FPRP category (kt N_N2O/year) ........................................................................................... 73 4 Table 2-92 Emissions of N_N2O for FCR category (kt N_N2O/year) ............................................................................................ 73 Table 2-93 Direct emissions of N_N2O from managed soils (kt N_N2O/year) ........................................................................... 74 Table 2-94 Total indirect emission of N_N2O from managed soils (kt N_N2O/year) ................................................................. 74 Table 2-95 Total N_N2O emissions from managed soils (kt N_N2O/year) ................................................................................. 74 Table 2-96 The CO2 emission from soil liming (kt/year), 2020-2050 ......................................................................................... 75 Table 2-97 The CO2 emission from urea applications (kt/year), 2020-2050 ..............................