Climă/Teme de date INSPIRE (în conformitate cu anexele la Directiva 2007/2/CE ) / 2023_Romania_GHG Projections.pdf

................................................ 76 Table 2-98 Parameter values (LB, DOM, SOC) - FL .................................................................................................................... 78 Table 2-99 Parameter values (LB, DOM) - CL ............................................................................................................................. 80 Table 2-100 Parameter values (Soil) - CL ................................................................................................................................... 80 Table 2-101 Parameter values (LB, DOM) - GL .......................................................................................................................... 82 Table 2-102 Parameter values (Soil) - GL ................................................................................................................................... 82 Table 2-103 Parameter values (LB, DOM, Soil) - WL, SL, OL ...................................................................................................... 83 Table 2-104 The CO2 emissions from LULUCF sector in the WOM scenario, 2020÷2050 ......................................................... 87 Table 2-105 The CH4 emissions from LULUCF sector in the WOM scenario, 2020÷2050 .......................................................... 88 Table 2-106 The N2O emissions from LULUCF sector in the WOM scenario, 2020÷2050 ......................................................... 88 Table 2-107 The CO2 emissions from LULUCF sector in the WEM scenario, 2020÷2050 .......................................................... 88 Table 2-108 The CH4 emissions from LULUCF sector in the WEM scenario, 2020÷2050 .......................................................... 89 Table 2-109 The N2O emissions from LULUCF sector in the WEM scenario, 2020÷2050 .......................................................... 89 Table 2-110 The CO2 emissions from LULUCF sector in the WAM scenario, 2020÷2050 .......................................................... 89 Table 2-111 The CH4 emissions from LULUCF sector in the WAM scenario, 2020÷2050 .......................................................... 90 Table 2-112 The N2O emissions from LULUCF sector in the WAM scenario, 2020÷2050 ......................................................... 90 Table 2-113 The CH4 emissions from Waste sector in WOM scenario, 2005÷2050 .................................................................. 93 Table 2-114 The CH4 emissions from Waste sector in WEM scenario, 2005÷2050 ................................................................... 93 Table 2-115 The CH4 emissions from Waste sector in WAM scenario, 2005÷2050 .................................................................. 94 Table 2-116 The N2O emissions from Waste sector in WOM scenario, 2005÷2050 .................................................................. 94 Table 2-117 The N2O emissions from Waste sector in WEM scenario, 2005÷2050 .................................................................. 95 Table 2-118 The N2O emissions from Waste sector in WAM scenario, 2005÷2050 .................................................................. 95 Table 2-119 Wastewater discharged in 2018 and the treatment methods .............................................................................. 96 Table 2-120 The CH4 emissions from wastewater treatment in WOM scenario, 2005÷2050 ................................................... 97 Table 2-121 The CH4 emissions from wastewater treatment in WEM scenario, 2005÷2050 .................................................... 97 Table 2-122 The CH4 emissions from wastewater treatment in WAM scenario, 2005÷2050 ................................................... 97 Table 2-123 The N2O emissions from wastewater treatment, 2005÷2050 ............................................................................... 98 Table 3-1 Romania’s annual emissions from the non-ETS sectors ............................................................................................ 99 Table 3-2 The shares of ETS sectors in total GHG emissions ................................................................................................... 100 Table 4-1 The GHG emissions (kt CO2eq) in the WEM scenario, 2020-2050............................................................................. 102 Table 4-2 The GHG emissions (kt CO2eq) in the WAM scenario, 2020-2050 ............................................................................ 103 Table 4-3 The GHG emissions (kt CO2eq) in the WOM scenario, 2020-2050 ............................................................................ 104 Table 4-4 The CO2 emissions (kt) in the WEM scenario, 2020-2050 ........................................................................................ 105 Table 4-5 The CO2 emissions (kt) in the WAM scenario, 2020-2050 ....................................................................................... 106 Table 4-6 The CO2 emissions (kt) in the WOM scenario, 2020-2050 ....................................................................................... 107 Table 4-7 The CH4 emissions (kt) in the WEM scenario, 2020-2050 ........................................................................................ 108 Table 4-8 The CH4 emissions (kt) in the WAM scenario, 2020-2050 ....................................................................................... 109 Table 4-9 The CH4 emissions (kt) in the WOM scenario, 2020-2050 ....................................................................................... 110 Table 4-10 The N2O emissions (kt) in the WEM scenario, 2020-2050 ..................................................................................... 111 Table 4-11 The N2O emissions (kt) in the WAM scenario, 2020-2050 ..................................................................................... 112 Table 4-12 The N2O emissions (kt) in the WOM scenario, 2020-2050 .................................................................................... 113 Table 4-13 The HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions (kt) in the WEM scenario, 2020-2050 ................................................................ 114 Table 4-14 The HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions (kt) in the WAM scenario, 2020-2050 ................................................................ 115 Table 4-15 The HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions (kt) in the WOM scenario, 2020-2050 ................................................................ 116 5 Table 5-1 The average annual growth rate of GDP during 2005 – 2050, (%) .......................................................................... 118 Table 5-2 The evolution of macroeconomic and energy indicators in 2020÷2050 period in all three scenarios .................... 118 Table 5-3 The evolution of the structure of Gross Added Values in 2020÷2050 period ......................................................... 119 Table 5-4 Evolution of CO2 emissions for alternative scenarios in 2018÷2050 (thousand tCO2)............................................. 119 6 LIST OF ABREVIATIONS AD Activity Data AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry, Other Land Uses AR4 IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report C Carbon CAP Common Agricultural Policy CH4 Methane CL Cropland CLC Corine Land Cover MFF Multiannual Financial Framework CO2 Carbon Dioxide CS Country Specific CSC Carbon Stock Change CTF Common Tabular Format DOM Dead Organic Matter GHG E GHG Emissions (+) EC European Council EC/COM European Commission EEA European Environment Agency EF Emission Factor EGM Explicit Geospatial Map ETS Emissions Trading System EU European Union EAFRD European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development EAGF European Agricultural Guarantee Fund FI Emission Factor Input FL Forestland FLU Land Use Emission Factor FMG Management Emission Factor SGAECL Standards on Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions of Land GASC The Guide on Adapting to The Effects of Climate Change GD Government Decision GEO Government Emergency Ordinance GHG Greenhouse Gases GL Grassland / Pastures GO Government Ordinance GWP Global Warming Potential IACS Integrated Administration and Control System KP Kyoto Protocol LB Living Biomass Lidar Light Detection and Ranging LPIS Land-Parcel Identification System LULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development ME Ministry of Energy 7 MEIP Ministry of European Investments and Projects MEWF Ministry of Environment and Waters and Forests N2O Nitrous Oxide NCSP National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis NGHGI National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory NPS National Power System NSVFSA National Sanitary-Veterinary and Food Safety Authority OL Other Lands PaMs Policies and Measures NRDP National Rural Development Program NRRP National Resilience and Recovery Plan UNDP United Nations Development Program GHG R GHG Removals (-) SL Settlements SOMM Soil Organic Matter Management SOC Soil Organic Carbon SOCref Reference Soil Organic Carbon TACCC Transparency, Accuracy, Completeness, Comparability, Consistency toe tonnes oil equivalent TSC Time Series Consistency TSC Time Series Consistency UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WAM With Additional Measures WEM With Existing Measures WL Wetlands WOM Without Measures 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATION OF THE GHG PROJECTIONS IN THE NGHGI SECTORS .................................9 1.1 Methodology for GHG projection estimations in the Energy sector ....................................................... 10 1.2 Methodology for GHG projection estimations in the Industrial Processes and Product Use sector ...... 12 1.3 Methodology for GHG projection estimations in Agriculture sector ...................................................... 13 1.4 Methodology for GHG projection estimations in Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector ...... 14 1.5 Methodology for GHG projection estimations in the Waste sector ....................................................... 19 2. ASSUMPTIONS CONSIDERED FOR GHG EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS ................................................................. 21 2.1 Macroeconomic indicators ...................................................................................................................... 21 2.2 Assumptions for the Energy sector ......................................................................................................... 22 2.3 Assumptions for the Industrial Processes and Products Use sector ....................................................... 46 2.4 Assumptions for the Agriculture sector .................................................................................................. 63 2.5 Assumptions for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector ................................................... 76 2.6 Assumptions for the Waste sector .......................................................................................................... 90 3. THE SHARE OF ETS SECTORS IN TOTAL GHG EMISSIONS AS REPORTED IN THE NGHGI ................................. 99 4. NATIONAL PROJECTIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ON 2020÷2050 PERIOD................................................................................................................................................ 101 5. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF GHG EMISSION PROJECTIONS TO CHANGES IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ROMANIA ............................................................................................................................... 117 6. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................... 121 ANNEXES ................................................................................................................................................................ 122 9 1. METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATION OF THE GHG PROJECTIONS IN THE NGHGI SECTORS The methodology for achieving emission projections for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is both based on historical data from the National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory (NGHGI) between 1989 – 2020 and on projection of macroeconomic indicators considered in the strategies of the Romanian Government and policies adopted for the economic and social development of the country in conjunction with the EU Directives. According to the National Emissions Inventory, the energy sector is the main source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (about 70% of total emissions). To this aim, the GHG emission projections are determined based on energy and non-energy sectors of the national economy. Non-energy sectors of the national economy that contribute to GHG emissions are: • forestry - in terms of atmospheric carbon sequestration options • agriculture - to evaluate CH4 emissions from livestock digestion and manure fermentation and N2O emissions from the application of nitrogen fertilizers • industry - to assess emissions from industrial processes • solvents and other products • liquid and solid waste management - to assess emissions of CH4, N2O and CO2. Projections of GHG emissions are performed for three scenarios, specifically: • a reference scenario "business as usual" (scenario without measures - WOM) feasible in the future without including special activities to reduce GHG emissions • a reduction scenario that is similar to the reference scenario in terms of development of socio-economic indicators, but containing policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions (scenario with measures - WEM) • a reduction scenario with additional measures that is similar to the reduction scenario but containing additional measures to reduce GHG emissions (scenario with additional measures - WAM). According to the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, technological processes that determine GHG emissions and mitigation options were identified for each sector. Hierarchy of options within a sector is based on detailed analyses, using various criteria, specifically: • degree of reduction of CO2 and other GHG emissions • cost-benefit ratio of the GHG emission reduction option • indirect economic impact (jobs, lower imports) • slight possibilities of implementation • long-term support of the reduction option, etc. For each analyzed sector it is explained how the reference scenario and the two alternative scenarios were defined given the specificity of each sector. 10 Both achieving the GHG emission projections and assessing the reduction alternatives is particularly difficult, and therefore we use dedicated programs that allow the identification of sectors of low importance to GHG emissions, correlated with the socio-economic development level of the country. To ensure consistency with the GHG emissions reported in the NGHGI, for the projections was used the global warming potential defined in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. 1.1 Methodology for GHG projection estimations in the Energy sector The GHG emission projections in the energy sector are determined in tight relation with the sub-sectors energy demand by each subsector (industry, transport, agriculture, households, and commercial consumers) and energy supply resources (primary energy resource extraction, their conversion in refineries, power plants, thermal power plants, transmission, and distribution of energetic products to consumers). The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (NCSP) has determined the evolution of the total energy demand and by types of energy resources, for the sectors defined according to the IPCC Guidelines: electricity and heat generation, transport, industry, agriculture, construction, services, and population using the methodology for drawing up the Energy Balance Prognosis. The determination of the energy consumption and resources is carried out separately for each energy carrier highlighted in the Annex of National Institute for Statistics Report - The energy balance and the structure of the energetic equipment. But at the end, to obtain the Energy Balance Prognosis, some of the results are aggregated (consumptions and exports), thus resulting total energy quantities, not separated by energy carriers. In this case, the indicators are determined from the energy balances drawn up for each energy carrier at the previous stage of results aggregation, for which the following steps are considered: Determination of energy consumption A specific energy carrier may be used in the final consumption as such (primary fuel) or may require conversion to another energy carrier (secondary fuel). Their use for final consumption is analysed separately, at least for the below economic sectors (but also for export where appropriate): - industry - non-energy use - agriculture - construction - transport - services (excluding transport) - residential sector - the consumption in the energy sector is determined by using the same a