Climă/Teme de date INSPIRE (în conformitate cu anexele la Directiva 2007/2/CE ) / 2023_Romania_GHG Projections.pdf

1166.48 CH4 0.1 0.05 003 0.03 0.04 0.04 N2O 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 It is difficult to determine the fuel and electricity requirements for fossil fuel production over the period 2020÷2050 given the restructuring of the sector and the changes envisaged with the use of different types of fuels in economic and environmental conditions. According to the NECP it is expected that the use of coal after 2025 will be restricted and more natural gas will be used. Table 2-23 shows for the three scenarios the evolution of fuel demand for fossil fuel production (extraction and handling of fossil fuels). For the no action scenario, the amount of fuel needed in 2005 has been kept constant. For the scenario with measures and with additional measures, for the period 2020÷2050, the consumption for the year 2020 was extrapolated at an average annual rate of 1% until 2030 and the structure was modified, considering the priority in use of gaseous fuel. After 2030, the fuel quantity is kept constant. Table 2-23 Evolution of fuel demand for fuel preparation in the period 2020÷2050 in all scenarios Scenario Fuel demand (PJ) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection Liquid fuels 22.805 22.805 22.805 22.805 22.805 22.805 22.805 Solid fuels 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 WOM Gaseous fuels 28.063 28.063 28.063 28.063 28.063 28.063 28.063 Biomass 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 TOTAL, in PJ 57.575 57.575 57.575 57.575 57.575 57.575 57.575 Liquid fuels 12.768 10.768 7.768 7.768 7.768 7.768 7.768 Solid fuels 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 WEM Gaseous fuels 4.383 7.259 11.179 11.179 11.179 11.179 11.179 WAM Biomass 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TOTAL, in PJ 17.152 18.027 7.779 7.779 7.779 7.779 7.779 32 Table 2-24 shows the GHG emission trends for the period 2020÷2050 for the category fuel production and other energy industries. Table 2-24 Evolution of GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the period 2020÷2050 in all scenarios Scenario Type of 2005 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GHG Quantity (kt) CO2 3528.12 1166.48 3528.12 3528.12 3528.12 3528.12 3528.12 3528.12 WOM CH4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N2O 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 CO2 3528.12 1166.48 1182.14 561.75 561.75 561.75 561.75 561.75 WEM CH4 0.1 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 WAM N2O 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Fugitive emissions from fuels GHG emissions result from the handling of fossil fuels. The following direct GHG emissions by source categories are quantified and reported in the NGHGI: • CH4 emissions due to handling of the solid fuels • CH4, CO2 and N2O emissions due to handling of the oil and natural gas. In 2020, GHG emissions from the fugitive emissions category from handling of the fossil fuel were 8584.68 kt CO2 equivalent, which represents 7.81% of total GHG emissions in that year. GHG emissions from coal handling account for 63.62% of fugitive emissions and those from oil and gas handling account for 36.38%. Fuel emissions of CH4 result from coal handling. In 2018, these emissions were about 10.4% of CH4 emissions due to the energy sector, 33% of total CH4 emissions in Romania. Table 2-25 shows the evolution of fugitive emissions, in 2005 and 2018, in the handling of the fossil fuels. It is noted that CH4 emissions in 2018 were reduced by about 45% compared to 2005, in close correlation with the production of fossil fuels used and restructuring actions in these sectors. Table 2-25 The evolution of fugitive GHG emissions in 2005, 2018 and 2020 CH4 emissions (thou tons) CO2 emissions (thou tons) Fuels Activity 2005 2018 2020 2005 2018 2020 Handling of coals 455.85 228.33 218.48 - - - Underground mines 433.48 208.19 205.76 - - - Mining activity 64.85 5.92 4.78 - - - Post-mining activity 9.09 0.89 0.72 - - - Coal Abandoned mines 359.54 201.38 200.26 - - - Surface mines 22.37 20.14 12.72 - - - Mining activity 20.65 18.59 11.74 - - - Post-mining activity 1.72 1.55 0.58 - - - Oil and natural gas Total 15.92 9.63 9.36 876.73 696.84 635.92 Extraction 0.23 0.14 0.13 62.32 37.33 36.39 Oil Production 15.23 9.13 8.90 1.18 1.11 1.06 Transport 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.01 Storage 0.37 0.29 0.27 - - - 33 Other activities - - - 812.59 658.19 598.46 Total 73.96 51.20 46.87 3.50 2.81 2.48 Production 16.24 13.77 11.95 0.58 0.49 0.43 Natural gas Processing 7.15 6.06 5.26 2.01 1.71 1.48 Transport and storage 4.74 3.22 3.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 Distribution 19.12 12.97 12.16 0.89 0.60 0.56 Other activities 26.71 15.17 14.48 - - - Open flames at oil and 62.60 38.05 36.89 262.46 160.87 155.48 natural gas Considering the difficulty to make the projections regarding the emission sources due to handling of fossil fuels for 2020÷2050, the following assumptions were used: • for the WOM scenario - the value of emissions reported in 2005 remains constant • for the WEM and WAM scenarios - the value of reported emissions in 2020 is reduced with an average annual rate of about 1% during 2020-2030 (compared to 2020), and with an average annual rate of 1.5% during 2030-2040, given the reduction of coal used, in the process of closing uneconomical deep-sea coal mines and the use of CH4 emissions for preparing the domestic warm water. During the period 2040-2050 the emissions value will be zero. Table 2-26 shows the evolutions of CH4 emissions during 2020÷2050, in the WOM, WEM and WAM scenarios. Table 2-26 The CH4 emissions (kt) from fugitive emissions from fuel category, 2018÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt CH4) 2005 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 608.33 608.33 608.33 608.33 608.33 608.33 WEM 608.33 373.03 311.60 296.48 282.09 277.17 257.29 0 0 WAM 296.48 282.09 277.17 257.29 0 0 The systems corresponding to the oil and natural gas sector cover the entire chain from extraction (crude oil or natural gas) to the final consumer, including transformation processes to meet consumer requirements. The fugitive CO2 emissions also result from these systems. These emissions were in 2020 793.88 kt CO2 representing about 1.25% of total CO2 emissions in Romania. Considering the difficulty to elaborate projections on the evolution of the oil and natural gas sector until 2050 and elaborate projections on fugitive CO2 emissions, the following assumptions were used for all three scenarios: • for the WOM scenario, the value of emissions reported in 2005 remains constant. • for the WEM and WAM scenarios, for the period 2020-2050, the value from 2018 is extrapolated with the average rate of 1%. Table 2-27 presents the forecast of CO2 emissions during 2020-2050. 34 Table 2-27 The evolution of CO2 emissions (kt) from fugitive emissions from fuel category, 2020÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt CO2) 2005 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 1142.69 1142.69 1142.69 1142.69 1142.69 1142.69 WEM 1142.69 860.52 793.88 834.37 876.92 921.64 968.65 1018.06 1069.9 WAM 834.37 876.92 921.64 968.65 1018.06 1069.9 Energy consumption in the industry sector The following types of energy uses are considered within the industry sector: • Fuels (gas, diesel) • Strictly electric uses, without alternative (lighting, electrolysis, electric motors, etc.) • Heat uses (space heating and domestic hot water, steam, furnace heating and direct heat generation, etc.) • Special treatments. Table 2-28 shows the alternative forms of energy by categories of use in the industry sector. Table 2-28 Alternative forms of energy by end-use categories for the industry sector Forms of energy Mining Processing Industry Thermal use Electrical use Thermal use water heating Furnaces/dire Power use Production Engines Engines ct burning Space and Steam Fossil fuels X X X X X Electricity X X X X X X Fuels X X Heat X X Solar energy X X X Traditional fuels (firewood, agricultural waste) X X X X Modern biomass (biofuels, bio liquids) X X X X The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis has indicated the evolution of energy consumption in the industry sector for the period 2020÷2050 as shown in Table 2-29. Table 2-29 The energy demand in the period 2020÷2050, for the industry and construction sector Energy 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 demand Inventory Projection Total (Mtoe) 6.424 7.017 7.333 7.733 8.315 8.744 9.061 Total (PJ) 268.991 293.822 307.053 323.802 348.173 366.136 379.410 Considering the assumptions on the development of the different industrial branches, the policies and measures specified in the NECP 2021-2030 and the NEEAP IV, the evolution of fuel demand is obtained for the period 2020÷2050, in the industry sector, for the two scenarios for which GHG emissions are projected (Table 2-30). 35 Table 2-30 Fuel demand (PJ) over the period 2005÷2050, for the industry and construction sector Fuel demand 2005 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 WEM Inventory Projection Total (PJ), of 258.646 242.980 231.950 246.369 264.2 276.3 291.4 303.4 325.8 337.6 which Liquid fuels 49.464 42.766 55.823 49.489 50.8 68.2 80.8 88.4 90.5 92.8 Solid fuels 34.553 8.147 9.336 9.608 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other fuels 2.534 7.039 6.288 11.690 10.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.0 Gaseous fuel 161.006 171.249 147.048 164.299 193.4 194.6 199.1 205.5 228.8 241.8 Biomass 11.088 13.779 13.455 11.282 10.0 9.5 8.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 WAM Inventory Projection Total (PJ), of 258.646 242.980 231.950 246.369 260.7 271.3 285.1 291.2 320.5 331.8 which Liquid fuels 49.464 42.766 55.823 49.489 49.8 60.5 68.9 70.2 85.0 90.0 Solid fuels 34.553 8.147 9.336 9.608 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other fuels 2.535 7.039 6.288 11.690 4.9 4.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gaseous