Climă/Teme de date INSPIRE (în conformitate cu anexele la Directiva 2007/2/CE ) / 2023_Romania_GHG Projections.pdf

fuel 161.006 171.249 147.048 164.299 196.0 197.3 207.7 215.0 231.5 240.8 Biomass 11.088 13.779 13.455 11.282 10.0 9.5 7.0 6.0 4.0 1.0 The GHG emissions projections in the industrial sector are obtained for each fuel type considering the specific emission factors used to estimate the GHG emissions in this sector. Tables 2-31, 2-32, 2-33 show the evolutions of GHG emissions, in the period 2018 - 2050, in the three analysed scenarios. In the WOM scenario the 2005 GHG emission values are maintained for the period 2005÷2050. Table 2-31 The CO2 emissions from the industry and construction sector, 2005÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt CO2) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 15961.20 16956.14 18096.37 18928.29 20290.91 20813.75 WEM 15961.20 14019.39 14714.29 15379.71 16213.91 17354.69 18186.61 19549.23 20311.07 WAM 15005.53 15792.82 16775.51 17146.63 19160.58 20047.88 Table 2-32 The CH4 emissions from the industry and construction sector, 2005÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt CH4) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 WEM 1.01 0.96 1.04 0.89 0.73 0.71 0.67 0.61 0.53 WAM 0.74 0.72 0.60 0.54 0.53 0.46 36 Table 2-33 The N2O emissions from the industry and construction sector, 2005÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt N2O) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 WEM 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 WAM 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.06 Energy consumption in the Transport sector Romania has a national transport system (infrastructure, vehicles, etc.) located, to a large extent, both in terms of functional structure, and services provided, at the level of the average standards of conventional transport systems in Europe. The strategic framework on sustainable transport policy in Romania is in line with the European policy defined in the White Paper on Transport. In the field of transport, Romania holds a key position at the eastern border of the EU, as a transit area both on the east-west direction (connection with Asia via the Black Sea) and north-south (from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean Sea). Three of the TEN-T priority axes cross the Romanian territory. The development of the Transport sector is conducted in close correlation with the socio-economic development of Romania. For a coherent and correct analysis of the Transport sector from the energy point of view, two distinct areas are considered, namely: freight transport and passenger transport. Considering the economic and social development of Romania, the transport sector must efficiently ensure both the freight and passengers transports over different distances. Table 2-34 presents the evolution of the freight transport during 2015÷2020. Table 2-34 Freight transport evolution during 2015÷2020 Year 2005 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Transported freight Thou. tons Rail transport 69175 55307 52618 50348 55429 58808 49671 Road transport 306994 198638 216085 191486 237132 256616 266523 Inland naval transport 16632 30020 30484 26858 229714 33261 30518 Oil pipeline transport 13378 6663 6825 5625 6459 6856 6410 Freight routes Mill. tons-km TOTAL 75471 66877 75656 80038 685178 89479 82025 Rail transport 16582 13673 13535 12941 13076 13312 12291 Road transport 51531 39022 48175 54026 58761 61041 55026 Inland naval transport 5147 13153 13161 12242 12261 13957 13638 Oil pipeline transport 2211 1029 785 829 1080 1168 1070 It is noted that during the period 2015÷2019 of economic growth, the freight routes increased from 66877 million tons-km to 89479 million tons-km, with an average annual growth rate of about 7.5%. The freight transport is conducted, mainly, by road. Table 2-35 presents the evolution of the passenger transport during 2015÷2020. 37 Table 2-35 Passenger transport evolution during 2015÷2020 Year 2005 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Transported passengers Thou. passengers Rail transport 92424 66482 64456 69057 66500 69708 50556 Road transport 238017 275548 302951 325532 361338 355556 273454 Inland naval transport 218 169 153 153 120 111 134 Passenger routes Mill. passengers-km TOTAL 19820 22630 23740 23850 25520 26465 17300 Rail transport 7985 5149 4988 5664 5577 5906 3720 Road transport 11811 17471 18744 18178 19937 20553 13573 Inland naval transport 24 10 8 8 6 6 7 It is noted that during the period 2015÷2019 of economic growth, the passenger routes increased with an average annual growth rate of 4%. The passenger transport is conducted, mainly, by road (78%). According to NAPEE IV and NECP, for the 2020÷2050 horizon the following measures are going to be adopted in the transport sector: • Renewal of the fleet of vehicles for all transportation means • Development and promotion of alternative mobility • Limiting the circulation of the conventional vehicles in city centers • Promoting electric mobility in road transport • Promoting the use of biofuels in transport • Promoting the use of renewable energy in rail transport • Priority development of railway transport and its intermodal integration with other means of transportation • Electrification and modernization of railway lines • Modernization of urban and interurban passenger transport in major cities. The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis has forecasted the evolution of energy consumption in the transport sector in the period 2020÷2050 that is presented in Table 2-36. Table 2-36 Evolution of energy demand in the transport sector, 2020÷2050 Energy 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 demand Inventory Projection Total (Mtoe) 6.514 8.103 9.177 10.250 11.980 12.950 13.600 Total (PJ) 272.749 339.283 384.252 429.179 501.617 542.232 569.448 In 2020 fuel consumption in the transport sector according to INGES 2022 was 240.124 PJ representing 88% of the sector's final energy consumption. Considering the policies and measures in the NECP 2021-2030 and the NAPEE IV, the evolution of fuel demand is obtained (Tables 2-37, 2-38) over the period 2020÷2050, in the transport sector for two scenarios for which GHG emissions are projected.  38 Table 2-37 Fuel demand in the transport sector in the WEM scenario, 2018-2050 Fuel demand 2005 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Historic values (inventory) Projection Total in PJ, out of 168.818 253.407 254.042 240.124 288.32 315.11 343.30 391.2 428.36 444.17 which: Liquid fuel 167.396 240.959 236.772 219.877 267.72 293.91 322.00 369.9 406.86 422.57 Solid fuel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 Gaseous fuels 1.393 0.009 0.005 0.013 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.300 0.500 0.600 Biomass 0.028 12.439 17.265 20.234 20.500 21.000 21.000 21.000 21.00 21.000 a. Air transport 2.640 2.325 2.708 1.618 2.900 3.400 3.900 4.300 4.700 5.100 Gasoline 0.445 0.047 0.074 0.046 0.055 0.045 0.055 0.065 0.075 0.085 Kerosene 2.195 2.278 2.634 1.572 2.845 3.355 3.845 4.235 4.625 5.015 b. Road transport 159.21 245.26 243.942 232.226 274.820 297.410 322.400 366.700 400.76 413.07 Gasoline 66.490 55.154 53.109 51.556 61.687 70.799 76.345 81.257 91.888 95.232 Diesel 89.987 173.739 169.439 156.733 186.733 196.611 212.055 248.443 268.772 275.838 Liquefied 2.311 3.924 4.129 3.704 5.900 9.000 13.000 16.000 19.000 21.000 petroleum gas Biomass 0.417 12.438 17.265 20.233 20.500 21.000 21.000 21.000 21.000 21.000 c. Rail transport 3.335 4.004 5.439 4.499 7.500 10.500 12.500 15.000 17.000 19.000 Liquid fuels 3.307 4.002 5.437 4.497 7.500 10.500 12.500 15.000 17.000 19.000 Biomass 0.028 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 d. Naval transport 1.739 1.761 1.868 1.715 2.200 2.700 3.200 3.700 4.200 4.900 Diesel fuel 1.697 1.721 1.825 1.675 2.175 2.630 3.110 3.600 4.000 4.600 Gasoline 0.042 0.040 0.043 0.04 0.025 0.070 0.090 0.100 0.200 0.300 e. Other types of 1.898 0.062 0.084 0.064 0.900 1.100 1.300 1.500 1.800 2.100 transport Liquid fuel 0.505 0.053 0.081 0.052 0.800 0.900 1.000 1.100 1.300 1.500 Gaseous fuels 1.393 0.009 0.003 0.012 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 Table 2-38 Fuel demand in the transport sector in the WAM scenario, 2018-2050 Fuel demand 2005 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Historic values (inventory) Projection Total in PJ, out of 168.818 253.407 254.042 240.124 271.480 299.850 330.450 352.720 379.75 401.865 which: Liquid fuel 167.396 240.959 236.772 219.877 259.466 296.630 330.435 352.700 379.735 401.83 Solid fuel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gaseous fuels 1.393 0.009 0.005 0.013 0.009 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.015 0.035 Biomass 0.028 12.439 17.265 20.234 12.005 3.210 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 a. Air transport 2.640 2.325 2.708 1.618 2.500 2.900 3.400 4.300 4.500 4.800 Gasoline 0.445 0.047 0.074 0.046 0.100 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 Kerosene 2.195 2.278 2.634 1.572 2.400 2.800 3.200 4.000 4.100 4.300 b. Road transport 159.21 245.26 243.942 232.228 262.625 275.810 292.965 302.350 342.500 362.975 Gasoline 66.490 55.154 53.109 51.556 63.800 69.300 85.900 91.500 98.500 107.950 Diesel fuel 89.987 173.739 169.439 156.733 181.825 195.710 197.965 198.950 230.800 239.325 Liquefied 2.311 3.924 4.129 3.705 5.000 7.600 9.100 11.900 13.200 15.700 petroleum gas Biomass 0.417 12.438 17.265 20.233 12.000 3.200 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 c. Rail transport 3.335 4.004 5.439 4.499 4.320 5.500 6.500 7.500 8.500 9.500 Liquid fuels 3.307 4.002 5.437 4.497 4.315 5.490 6.500 7.500 8.500 9.500 39 Biomass 0.028 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.005 0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 d. Naval transport 1.739 1.761 1.868 1.715 1.970 2.550 3.080 3.600 4.100 4.400 Diesel fuel 1.697 1.721 1.825 1.675 1.940 2.500 3.000 3.500 3.950 4.200 Gasoline 0.042 0.040 0.043 0.04 0.030 0.050 0.080 0.100 0.150 0.200 e. Other types of 1.898 0.062 0.084 0.064 0.065 0.090 0.105 0.130 0.150 0.190 transport Liquid fuel 0.505 0.053 0.081 0.052 0.056 0.080 0.090 0.110 0.135 0.155 Gaseous fuels 1.393 0.009 0.003 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.015 0.035 The projected GHG emissions in the transport sector is obtained for each type of fuel considering the specific emission factors used within the NGHGI. Tables 2-39, 2-40, 2-41 present the evolutions of GHG emissions, in the period 2018÷2050, in the three analysed scenarios. In the „without measures” scenario, the values of emissions achieved in 2005 are extrapolated with an average annual growth rate of 3% for the period 2005÷2050. Table 2-39 The CO2 emissions in the transport sector, 2018÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt CO2) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 22525.19 26059.02 30463.19 35341.92 35512.31 35781.92 WEM 12376.60 18176.82 18122.95 22015.35 24046.50 26281.68 28523.53 33223.05 34457.14 WAM 21323.79 23254.84 24891.42 25740.71 29219.17 30918.55 Table 2-40 The CH4 emissions in the transport sector, 2018÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt CH4) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 5.05 5.88 6.83 7.90 7.91 7.92 WEM 2.80 1.36 1.28 1.55 1.77 1.94 2.10 2.39 2.49 WAM 1.48 1.57 1.84 1.97 2.15 2.35 Table 2-41 The N2O emissions in the transport sector, 2018÷2050 Scenario Total emissions (kt N2O) 2005 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection WOM 1.15 1.36 1.52 1.73 1.97 2.11 WEM 0.51 0.75 0.83 1.04 1.18 1.30 1.44 1.66