Climă/Teme de date INSPIRE (în conformitate cu anexele la Directiva 2007/2/CE ) / 2023_Romania_GHG Projections.pdf

he value of this indicator reached 60% of the average. It results that Romania made important progress in its economic development. 22 Table 2-3 shows the structure of the GVA (Gross Value Added) by economic branches in the period 2017÷2050 provided by the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis. Table 2-3 GVA structure by branches (%), 2020÷2050 Year 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Historic values Projections TOTAL GVA (%), of which: 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Industry 22.42 22.28 22.01 21.19 20.64 20.17 19.87 19.65 19.52 Agriculture 4.38 4.72 4.79 4.26 3.79 3.49 3.23 2.99 2.79 Construction 7.25 6.72 6.97 7.63 8.17 8.04 7.85 7.67 7.54 Services 65.95 66.28 66.23 66.91 67.40 68.30 69.06 69.69 70.15 Table 2-4 shows the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators used in the methodologies for determining GHG emission projections. Table 2-4 Macroeconomic indicators in the period 2005÷2050 Specification/ Year 2005 2019 2020 2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Historic values Projections Population (mill. 21.62 19.375 19.269 19.167 18.701 18.176 17.603 17.035 16.534 16.048 inhabitants) GDP (billion Euro2020) 122.13 227.4 218.9 231.8 280.0 333.0 363.8 398.8 431.0 461.7 GDP per capita (Euro2020 5648.9 11736.7 11360.2 12093.7 14972.5 18320.9 20666.9 23410.6 26067.5 28769.9 / capita) TOTAL GVA (billion Euro 108.17 205.6 198.5 209,6 246.3 292.6 329.7 361.9 391.3 419.1 2020) Industry 30.64 46.6 44.5 46.7 52.2 60.4 66.5 71.9 76.9 81.8 Agriculture 7.35 10.2 8.7 9.9 10.5 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 Construction 7.37 13.1 14.4 14.1 18.8 23.9 26.5 28.4 30.0 31.6 Services 62.80 135.7 130.9 138.9 164.8 197.2 225.2 249.9 272.7 294.0 2.2 Assumptions for the Energy sector Introduction According to the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan NEEAP IV, in 2015 Romania had the following characteristics: • final energy consumption per capita of 1.102 toe, being 1.93 times lower than the EU28 average • the share of final energy consumption in primary domestic energy consumption was close to the EU28 average (1.02 higher than the EU28 average) • the primary energy intensity was 0.227 toe/1000Euro, 1.89 times higher than the value of this indicator for the EU28 average • the structure of primary internal energy consumption has changed between 2005 and 2015, the natural gas having the highest share, followed by oil and coal • the final consumption of electricity per capita was 2171 kWh/capita, being about 2.6 times lower than the average value of the EU28 (5380 kWh/capita); the share of electricity consumption in the final energy 23 consumption increased between 2005 and 2015, reaching 16.9% which still shows the low level of electricity penetration in social and economic activities. The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis issued in October 2022 the Energy Balance Prognosis for 2019÷2030 period, in correlation with the projection of macroeconomic indicators and Romania's national targets for energy efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, the use of renewable energy resources, etc. A forecast for the years 2035, 2040, 2045 and 2050 was also performed. Table 2-5 shows the achievements of 2019, 2020, 2021 years and the projections for the other years. It results that Romania's domestic primary energy consumption in 2020 was about 32.171 million toe, representing an overachievement about 75% of the national target of 42.99 million toe indicated in PNAEE IV. Table 2-5 Forecast of primary energy consumption and final energy consumption [thou toe] Specification / year 2019 2020 2021 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Historic values Projections Internal primary energy 33015 32171 32909 33693 35637 36979 39822 40977 42347 consumption Consumption in the energy sector 3023 3050 2926 2810 2782 2754 2730 2705 2680 Losses 895 870 872 844 810 780 750 725 703 Available for the final 25102 25127 25795 26784 28388 30082 32660 34279 35429 consumption Non-energy consumption 1135 1295 1286 1326 1346 1358 1370 1382 1395 Final energy consumption, of 23874 23513 24509 25458 27042 28724 31290 32897 34034 which: - Population consumption 7754 8008 8089 7482 7512 7564 7625 7686 7747 - Consumption in economy, of 16120 15505 16410 18363 19530 21160 23665 25211 26287 which: - Industry 6281 6009 6412 6621 6808 7130 7640 8022 8302 - Construction 378 416 398 484 525 603 675 722 758 - Transport and 537 531 571 554 562 572 583 592 599 telecommunications - Agriculture. forestry and 6713 6514 6907 8346 9177 10250 11980 12950 13600 fishing - other economy branches 2191 2035 2131 2357 2458 2605 2787 2925 3028 Source: National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis For the period 2022÷2050; National Institute of Statistics for 2019÷2021 Romania's final energy consumption in 2020 was about 25.127 million toe, representing an overachievement about 82.8% of the national target of 30.32 million toe. The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis considered the assumptions (production and imports) shown in table 2.4. After analysing the projections in this table, the following conclusions can be drawn: 1. Crude oil production is declining (e.g., due to lack of new fields) 2. Natural gas production is increasing due to new investments in the exploitation of Black Sea deposits 3. The increase in renewable electricity generation accompanies the increase in renewable generation capacity described in the NECP 4. The increase in power generation from nuclear power plants as a result of Romania's Energy Strategy 2022-2030 with a view to 2050 24 Electricity and heat production in cogeneration To establish the power plants development program in the 2022÷2050 period, are considered the forecast of the evolution of electricity and heat consumption in cogeneration, the diversification of primary energy resources, the retrofitting and modernization of the sector, modern technologies for the electricity and heat generation, environmental requirements. Establishing the electricity generation structure in the period 2022÷2050 is particularly difficult due to the high degree of uncertainty regarding: • the evolution of electricity demand and fuel prices on international markets • compliance of existing power units with environmental requirements • the ability of investors to carry out the investment programs provided in the National Investment Plan, or in the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP). Different scenarios for the electricity generation structure are analysed for the period 2022÷2050 considering various assumptions for the key parameters variations. Key assumptions for defining scenarios are related to: • projections of electricity consumption • diversification of primary energy resources used • modern technologies for the cogeneration of electricity and heat • environmental requirements • the situation of existing power units in the National Power System (NPS) • investment programs of the different companies (domestic or foreign). Table 2-6 shows the prognosis of fuel prices for the 2022÷2040 period according to EC recommendations. Table 2-6 Assumptions considering the evolution of import fuel prices in the 2022÷2040 period, according to EC recommendation Fuel type Price (€2020/toe) 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 Crude oil 643 643 643 643 680 Natural gas 1391 554 473 473 473 Coal 220 128 130 131 139 Price (€2020/GJ) 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 Crude oil 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 16.3 Natural gas 33.2 13.2 11.3 11.3 11.3 Coal 5.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 Table 2-7 shows the trajectory of the trading price of ETS certificates (carbon price (€2020 /tCO2) period 2022÷2040, according to EC recommendations. 25 Table 2-7 ETS certificates price over the period 2022÷2040 Year The trajectory of the trading price of green certificates until 2030 (€2020 /tCO2) 2022 75 2023 77 2024 78 2025 80 2030 80 WEM WAM 2035 82 120 2040 85 250 Table 2-8 shows the evolution of electricity production in the 2005÷2040 period, which was envisaged for the determination of the production capacities structure within NPS. Table 2-8 Development of domestic consumption and production of electricity, 2005÷2050 Indicators 2005 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Inventory Projection Gross internal consumption of 56.51 57.40 56.67 54.68 58.25 60.79 62.76 64.63 66.26 67.93 electricity Total gross production 59.41 64.88 59.62 55.94 61.25 63.16 64.18 66.85 68.53 70.26 In 2020 the installed capacity in Romanian power plants was 20584 MW as shown in Table 2-9. Table 2-9 Installed capacity in Romanian power plants in 2020 Power Plant Type Installed capacity (MW) Thermal PP - on coal 4786.969 - on liquid hydrocarbons 87.494 - on gaseous hydrocarbons 3340.142 Nuclear power Plants 1414.000 Hydro Power Plants 6560.797 Wind Power Plants 3012.53 Photovoltaic Power Plants 1382.539 TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY 20584.461 The power plants development program for the period 2018÷2030 is presented considering the provisions of the Romanian Energy Strategy 2019÷2030 with perspective up to 2050 and the NECP 2021÷2030, version April 2020. The scenario with measures shall consider the provisions of NECP 2021÷2030, regarding the evolution of installed capacities for 2020÷2030 period compared to installed capacities in 2020 in view of the policies and measures foreseen and the increasing of electricity demand trend. According to NECP, by 2030, the installed capacity in wind power plants (WPP) is expected to increase to a power of 5255 MW and in photovoltaic power plants (PVPP) to 5054 MW. 26 To meet the trajectory of RES shares assumed by Romania, the new net energy production capacities necessary to be installed in RES are: • Wind Power Plants (WPP) o 822 MW additional installed capacity in 2022 compared to 2020 o 559 MW additional installed capacity in 2025 compared to 2022 o 556 MW additional installed capacity in 2027 compared to 2025 o 365 MW additional installed capacity in 2030 compared to 2027 • Photovoltaic Power Plants (PVPP) o 994 MW additional installed capacity in 2022 compared to 2020 o 1037 MW additional installed capacity in 2025 compared to 2022 o 528 MW additional installed capacity in 2027 compared to 2025 o 1133 MW additional installed capacity in 2030 compared to 2027 In the 2027-2030 horizon, to preserve the existing capacities, it will be necessary to take measures to rehabilitate about 3000 MW in WPP and 1250 MW in PVPP. The NECP provides the development and decarbonisation plan for Oltenia Energy Complex in the period 2020÷2030. In this respect, the following actions are envisaged, which will be implemented by 2030: • Construction of 3 (three) photovoltaic parks, with a total installed capacity of about 300 MW installed on closed slag and ash deposits (related to Rovinari, Turceni and Işalnița TPPs). Construction works will begin in 2023, commissioning will be carried out in 2024 (150 MW), respectively 2025 (additional 150 MW) • Construction of a new cogeneration unit (200 MW) on natural gas at Craiova CHPP, which will replace from 2024 the current lignite capacities (2x150 MW) • Construction of a 400 MW unit on natural gas at Turceni TPP, which will replace an existing capacity of 330 MW on lignite • Construction of 2x400 MW units (total installed additional capacity of 800MW) on natural gas at Ișalnița TPP, which will replace unit 7 and 8 (315 MW each) on lignite. From 2024 onwards, a sustainable transition is foreseen by developing new natural gas units with a total installed capacity of 1400 MW. This fuel has the advantage of allowing units operation flexibility, which will allow greater integration of RES in the NPS, whereas natural gas can ensure the system balance, considering the intermittent nature of the RES. The NECP states that nuclear energy is an important element for Romania's energy security. According to this plan, extending the operating lifetime for Units 1 and 2 at Cernavoda NPP is an efficient solution since the extension with another life cycle is made at around 40% lower costs then a new objective of the same capacity. Thus, the supply of electricity free of greenhouse gas emissions can be ensured, with minimal impact on the environment, at competitive costs, contributing sustainably to the decarbonisation of the energy sector and the achievement of Romania's energy and environmental targets for 2030, in line with the objectives assumed at European and even global level (Paris Agreement). Unit 1 will be retrofitted in 2027-2028 and Unit 2 will be retrofitted after 2037. According to the NECP, Units 3 and 4 in Cernavoda NPP are expected to be put into operation in 2030 and 2031. Additionally, the NECP provides the development of high-efficiency cogeneration c