Prognoza pe termen mediu 2007-2013 – varianta preliminara de primavara (pdf)

7 254.4 107.7 273.9 110.7 303.3 106.5 322.9 107.4 346.6 Impozite nete pe produs 109.2 24.2 109.4 26.5 109.4 28.9718 116.2 33.7 107.5 36.2 108.2 39.1 107.2 41.9 107.7 45.2 PRODUS INTERN BRUT 108.5 214.3 115.0 246.5 104.1 256.7 112.2 288.0 107.7 310.1 110.4 342.4 106.5 364.8 107.4 391.8 5 Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 - miliarde lei si indici - 2008 2009 2010 Indice Valoare Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare la Indice Valoare Indice Indice Valoare la RAMURA de la pret la pret de la pret de pret de la pret de de pret pret curent volum 2007 curent volum 2008 pret curent volum 2009 pret Industrie Productie 105.1 308.7 107.5 331.9 105.3 349.3 106.5 371.9 105.5 392.2 105.5 413.6 Consum intermediar 105.1 210.1 107.5 225.8 105.2 237.5 106.4 252.7 105.5 266.6 105.4 281.1 Valoare adaugata bruta 105.2 98.6 107.6 106.1 105.4 111.9 106.5 119.1 105.4 125.6 105.5 132.5 Agricultura, silvicultura, piscicultura, exploatare forestiera Productie 103.2 59.2 102.0 60.4 103.5 62.5 102.0 63.8 103.5 66.0 101.5 67.0 Consum intermediar 103.3 29.3 102.1 29.9 103.4 30.9 101.9 31.5 103.6 32.6 101.4 33.1 Valoare adaugata bruta 103.2 29.9 101.9 30.5 103.5 31.6 102.1 32.2 103.5 33.4 101.6 33.9 Constructii Productie 110.9 73.7 106.6 78.6 110.5 86.8 105.3 91.4 110.5 100.9 104.3 105.3 Consum intermediar 110.9 40.5 106.5 43.2 110.4 47.7 105.2 50.2 110.4 55.4 104.2 57.7 Valoare adaugata bruta 111.0 33.2 106.7 35.4 110.5 39.1 105.4 41.2 110.5 45.6 104.4 47.6 Total servicii Productie 106.4 350.4 106.0 371.5 105.9 393.2 105.0 412.8 105.7 436.4 104.0 453.8 Consum intermediar 106.4 143.9 105.9 152.4 105.7 161.1 104.9 169.0 105.6 178.5 103.9 185.5 Valoare adaugata bruta 106.5 206.5 106.0 219.0 106.0 232.1 105.1 243.8 105.8 257.9 104.1 268.4 Total economie Productie 106.1 792.1 106.3 842.3 105.9 891.8 105.4 939.8 105.9 995.6 104.4 1039.7 Consum intermediar 105.9 423.8 106.5 451.2 105.7 477.2 105.5 503.4 105.9 533.1 104.5 557.4 Valoare adaugata bruta 106.3 368.3 106.2 391.1 106.0 414.6 105.3 436.4 106.0 462.4 104.3 482.3 Impozite nete pe produs 106.2 48.0 103.5 49.6 105.0 52.1 102.5 53.4 104.8 56.0 101.9 57.0 PRODUS INTERN BRUT 106.3 416.3 105.9 440.7 105.9 466.7 105.0 489.8 105.8 518.4 104.0 539.4 6 Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 - miliarde lei si indici - 2011 2012 2013 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Indice Valoare Indice Valoare la Valoare la Indice Valoare la RAMURA de la pret de la pret de de la pret de pret pret curent pret curent de pret pret curent volum 2010 volum 2011 pret volum 2012 Industrie Productie 105.5 436.2 103.5 451.4 105.4 475.7 103.0 490.0 105.4 516.3 103.0 531.8 Consum intermediar 105.5 296.5 103.5 307.0 105.4 323.6 103.0 333.2 105.4 351.3 103.0 361.8 Valoare adaugata bruta 105.4 139.7 103.4 144.5 105.3 152.1 103.0 156.7 105.3 165.0 103.0 169.9 Agricultura, silvicultura, piscicultura, exploatare forestiera Productie 102.5 68.7 101.5 69.7 102.0 71.1 101.5 72.2 101.6 73.4 101.5 74.5 Consum intermediar 102.7 34.0 101.4 34.5 102.1 35.2 101.4 35.7 101.7 36.3 101.4 36.8 Valoare adaugata bruta 102.3 34.7 101.6 35.2 102.0 35.9 101.6 36.5 101.6 37.1 101.6 37.7 Constructii Productie 109.7 115.5 103.3 119.3 109.5 130.6 102.4 133.8 109.3 146.2 102.4 149.7 Consum intermediar 109.6 63.2 103.2 65.3 109.3 71.3 102.3 73.0 109.2 79.7 102.3 81.6 Valoare adaugata bruta 109.8 52.3 103.4 54.0 109.7 59.3 102.5 60.8 109.4 66.5 102.5 68.2 Total servicii Productie 105.7 479.7 103.0 494.1 105.6 521.8 102.6 535.3 105.6 565.5 102.6 580.2 Consum intermediar 105.5 195.7 102.8 201.3 105.5 212.4 102.5 217.6 105.5 229.6 102.5 235.3 Valoare adaugata bruta 105.8 284.0 103.1 292.8 105.7 309.4 102.7 317.7 105.7 335.9 102.7 345.0 Total economie Productie 105.8 1100.0 103.1 1134.5 105.7 1199.2 102.7 1231.3 105.7 1301.4 102.7 1336.2 Consum intermediar 105.8 589.4 103.1 608.0 105.7 642.4 102.7 659.5 105.7 696.9 102.7 715.5 Valoare adaugata bruta 105.9 510.6 103.1 526.5 105.7 556.8 102.7 571.7 105.7 604.5 102.7 620.7 Impozite nete pe produs 105.1 59.9 101.6 60.9 105.0 64.0 101.2 64.8 105.0 68.0 100.8 68.5 PRODUS INTERN BRUT 105.8 570.5 103.0 587.4 105.7 620.7 102.5 636.5 105.7 672.5 102.5 689.2 7 Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 CONTRIBUTII LA CRESTEREA REALA A PIB -%- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Industrie 1.6 0.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Agricultura, silvicultura, piscicultura, exploatare forestiera 2.2 -2.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Constructii 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Total servicii 3.1 4.3 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 Impozite nete pe produs 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 PRODUS INTERN BRUT 8.5 4.1 7.7 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 8 Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 STRUCTURA PRODUSULUI INTERN BRUT PE RAMURI - %, preturi curente - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Industrie 24.7 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 Agricultura, silvicultura, piscicultura, exploatare forestiera 12.6 8.5 8.0 7.4 6.9 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.5 Constructii 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.6 9.9 Total servicii 46.0 49.4 49.6 49.5 49.7 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.9 50.0 Total economie 89.3 88.3 88.6 88.5 88.7 89.1 89.4 89.6 89.8 90.1 Impozite nete pe produs 10.7 11.7 11.4 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.9 PRODUS INTERN BRUT 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 9 Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 COMPONENTELE DE UTILIZARE A PIB - modificari procentuale fata de anul precedent - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Produs intern brut - mld. RON 246.5 288.0 342.4 391.8 440.7 489.8 539.4 587.4 636.5 689.2 - crestere reala % 8.5 4.1 7.7 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 Consum final 10.2 9.5 11.5 8.3 7.4 6.8 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.3 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 12.8 9.1 12.6 8.9 7.8 7.3 6.3 5.8 6.0 5.6 Cheltuiala pentru consum final 14.5 9.7 14.1 9.8 8.4 7.9 6.8 6.3 6.4 6.0 Cheltuiala de consum individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 2.0 4.9 2.7 3.0 3.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.3 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm publice -9.3 13.5 2.7 3.0 3.7 2.5 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.3 Formarea bruta a capitalului 19.4 2.5 17.6 13.9 12.2 11.6 10.8 11.2 10.6 10.5 Formarea bruta de capital fix 11.1 12.6 16.1 14.2 12.0 11.3 10.6 10.5 10.0 10.0 Modificarea stocurilor (Contrib.la cresterea reala a PIB) 1.9% -2.2% 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cererea interna 12.0 8.0 12.8 9.5 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.7 Export net (Contributia la cresterea reala a PIB) -4.5% -4.5% -6.4% -4.1% -3.3% -3.0% -2.1% -2.0% -2.2% -2.0% Export de bunuri si servicii 13.9 8.1 10.6 10.0 9.0 8.6 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.0 Import de bunuri si servicii 22.1 16.6 23.0 16.5 13.8 12.9 10.1 9.8 10.4 9.8 Consum final 10.2 9.5 11.5 8.3 7.4 6.8 5.9 5.4 5.7 5.3 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 14.6 9.6 13.9 9.7 8.4 7.9 6.8 6.1 6.2 6.0 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental -4.9 9.0 2.5 2.9 3.6 2.4 1.9 2.5 3.5 2.0 10  Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 UTILIZAREA PRODUSULUI INTERN BRUT - mld.lei si indici - 2004 2005 2006 2007 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la pret de la pre