Prognoza pe termen mediu 2007-2013 – varianta preliminara de primavara (pdf)

t de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret volum 2003 pret curent volum 2004 pret curent volum 2005 pret curent volum 2006 pret curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 108.5 214.3 115.0 246.5 104.1 256.7 112.2 288.0 107.7 310.1 110.4 342.4 106.5 364.8 107.4 391.8 Consum final 110.2 186.4 112.7 210.2 109.5 230.1 109.7 252.4 111.5 281.5 106.9 301.0 108.3 326.0 104.5 340.5 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 112.8 168.3 113.5 191.1 109.1 208.4 108.4 226.0 112.6 254.4 106.1 269.8 108.9 293.9 104.2 306.2 Cheltuiala pentru consum final 114.5 146.8 113.9 167.2 109.7 183.5 107.0 196.4 114.1 223.9 105.0 235.1 109.8 258.2 103.8 268.0 -- cumparari de marfuri 113.5 74.6 110.8 82.7 120.7 99.8 106.1 106.0 121.5 128.7 104.4 134.5 114.5 154.0 103.5 159.3 -- servicii 110.0 24.5 114.8 28.2 107.8 30.4 112.8 34.2 108.0 34.8 109.1 37.9 106.0 40.2 106.5 42.8 -- autoconsum si piata taraneasca 106.7 27.8 113.4 31.5 89.2 28.1 99.9 28.1 102.3 28.7 103.7 29.8 101.5 30.2 102.5 31.0 -- alte servicii 141.6 19.8 125.4 24.9 101.2 25.2 111.7 28.1 105.3 31.7 103.9 33.0 102.5 33.8 103.0 34.8 Cheltuiala de consum individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 102.0 21.5 110.6 23.8 104.9 25.0 118.6 29.6 102.7 30.4 114.0 34.7 103.0 35.7 107.0 38.2 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 90.7 18.1 105.4 19.1 113.5 21.7 122.0 26.5 102.7 27.2 114.7 31.1 103.0 32.1 107.0 34.3 Formarea bruta a capitalului 119.4 51.5 113.8 58.6 102.5 60.1 108.8 65.4 117.6 76.9 107.9 82.9 113.9 94.5 106.7 100.8 Formarea bruta de capital fix 111.1 47.0 114.6 53.9 112.6 60.6 109.7 66.5 116.1 77.2 109.1 84.3 114.2 96.2 107.0 103.0 Modificarea stocurilor (Contrib.proc.la cresterea PIB real) 1.9% 4.8 -2.2% -1.1 0.3% -1.3 -0.1% -2.2 Cererea interna 112.0 238.0 113.0 268.8 108.0 290.2 109.5 317.8 112.8 358.4 107.1 383.9 109.5 420.4 105.0 441.3 Export net (contrib.proc la cresterea PIB real) -4.5% -23.7 -22.3 -4.5% -33.5 -29.8 -6.4% -48.3 -41.5 -4.1% -55.6 -49.5 Export de bunuri si servicii 113.9 78.1 113.4 88.6 108.1 95.7 99.1 94.9 110.6 104.9 105.7 110.9 110.0 121.9 103.2 125.9 Import de bunuri si servicii 122.1 101.8 108.9 110.9 116.6 129.3 96.4 124.7 123.0 153.3 99.4 152.4 116.5 177.6 98.8 175.4 Consum final 110.2 186.4 112.7 210.2 109.5 230.1 109.7 252.4 111.5 281.5 106.9 301.0 108.3 326.0 104.5 340.5 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 114.6 149.5 113.9 170.4 109.6 186.8 107.1 200.0 113.9 227.8 105.1 239.3 109.7 262.5 103.8 272.5 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 95.1 36.9 107.8 39.8 109.0 43.4 120.9 52.4 102.5 53.7 114.8 61.7 102.9 63.5 107.1 68.0 11 Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 - mld.lei si indici - 2008 2009 2010 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret volum 2007 pret curent volum 2008 pret curent volum 2009 pret curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 106.3 416.3 105.9 440.7 105.9 466.7 105.0 489.8 105.8 518.4 104.0 539.4 Consum final 107.4 365.7 104.0 380.2 106.8 406.0 103.1 418.8 105.9 443.3 102.7 455.2 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 107.8 330.1 103.8 342.6 107.3 367.5 103.0 378.5 106.3 402.2 102.5 412.4 Cheltuiala pentru consum final 108.4 290.5 103.5 300.8 107.9 324.7 102.8 333.8 106.8 356.6 102.4 365.0 -- cumparari de marfuri 112.0 178.5 103.4 184.5 111.0 204.7 102.8 210.5 109.0 229.4 102.3 234.7 -- servicii 106.2 45.5 106.0 48.2 106.1 51.1 104.0 53.2 106.0 56.4 103.5 58.4 -- autoconsum si piata taraneasca 101.0 31.3 102.0 31.9 101.0 32.2 101.8 32.8 101.0 33.1 101.5 33.6 -- alte servicii 101.5 35.3 102.5 36.2 101.0 36.6 102.0 37.3 101.0 37.7 101.7 38.3 Cheltuiala de consum individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 103.5 39.5 105.6 41.8 102.5 42.8 104.5 44.7 102.0 45.6 104.0 47.5 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 103.7 35.6 105.6 37.6 102.5 38.5 104.5 40.3 102.0 41.1 104.0 42.7 Formarea bruta a capitalului 112.2 113.1 103.5 117.0 111.6 130.5 103.6 135.2 110.8 149.8 101.6 152.1 Formarea bruta de capital fix 112.0 115.3 105.0 121.1 111.3 134.8 104.8 141.2 110.6 156.2 103.7 162.0 Modificarea stocurilor (Contrib.proc.la cresterea PIB real) 0.0% -4.1 0.0% -6.0 -0.1% -9.8 Cererea interna 108.5 478.8 103.8 497.2 107.9 536.5 103.2 554.0 107.1 593.1 102.4 607.3 Export net (contrib.proc la cresterea PIB real) -3.3% -62.5 -56.5 -3.0% -69.8 -64.1 -2.1% -74.6 -67.9 Export de bunuri si servicii 109.0 137.2 102.6 140.7 108.6 152.9 104.1 159.1 107.5 171.1 103.4 176.9 Import de bunuri si servicii 113.8 199.6 98.8 197.2 112.9 222.7 100.3 223.2 110.1 245.7 99.6 244.8 Consum final 107.4 365.7 104.0 380.2 106.8 406.0 103.1 418.8 105.9 443.3 102.7 455.2 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 108.4 295.3 103.6 305.8 107.9 329.9 102.8 339.1 106.8 362.1 102.4 370.7 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 103.6 70.4 105.7 74.4 102.4 76.2 104.6 79.7 101.9 81.2 104.1 84.5 12 Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 - mld.lei si indici - 2011 2012 2013 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret volum 2010 pret curent volum 2011 pret curent volum 2012 pret curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 105.8 570.5 103.0 587.4 105.7 620.7 102.5 636.5 105.7 672.5 102.5 689.2 Consum final 105.4 479.9 102.1 490.2 105.7 518.3 102.1 529.3 105.3 557.4 102.0 568.7 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 105.8 436.4 102.1 445.5 106.0 472.3 102.1 482.2 105.6 509.2 102.0 519.4 Cheltuiala pentru consum final 106.3 388.0 102.1 395.9 106.4 421.2 102.1 429.8 106.0 455.6 102.0 464.5 Cheltuiala de consum individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 102.0 48.4 102.5 49.6 103.0 51.1 102.5 52.4 102.3 53.6 102.3 54.8 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 102.0 43.6 102.5 44.7 103.0 46.0 102.5 47.1 102.3 48.2 102.3 49.3 Formarea bruta a capitalului 111.2 169.2 102.5 173.3 110.6 191.7 102.0 195.4 110.5 216.0 102.0 220.3 Formarea bruta de capital fix 110.5 179.0 102.5 183.5 110.0 201.8 102.0 205.8 110.0 226.4 102.0 231.0 Modificarea stocurilor (Contrib.proc.la cresterea PIB real) 0.0% -10.1 0.0% -10.4 0.0% -10.7 Cererea interna 106.9 649.1 102.2 663.5 107.0 709.9 102.1 724.8 106.7 773.4 102.0 789.0 Export net (contrib.proc la cresterea PIB real) -2.0% -78.5 -76.1 -2.2% -89.2 -88.3 -2.0% -100.9 -99.8 Export de bunuri si servicii 107.6 190.3 103.0 196.1 107.8 211.3 103.0 217.7 108.0 235.1 103.0 242.2 Import de bunuri si servicii 109.8 268.9 101.2 272.2 110.4 300.5 101.8 306.0 109.8 336.0 101.8 341.9 Consum final 105.4 479.9 102.1 490.2 105.7 518.3 102.1 529.3 105.3 557.4 102.0 568.7 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 106.1 393.3 102.2 402.0 106.2 427.0 102.2 436.2 106.0 462.5 102.1 472.2 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 102.5 86.6 101.8 88.2 103.5 91.3 102.0 93.1 102.0 94.9 101.6 96.5 13 Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 CONTRIBUTII LA CRESTEREA REALA A P. I. B. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Produs intern brut 8.5 4.1 7.7 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 Consum final 8.7 8.1 10.1 7.3 6.4 5.9 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.4 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 9.6 7.1 9.9 7.0 6.1 5.6 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.2 Cheltuiala pentru consum final a populatiei 9.4 6.6 9.6 6.7 5.8 5.4 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.1 Cheltuiala de consum individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm publice -0.9 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Formarea bruta a capitalului 4.2 0.6 4.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 Formarea bruta de capital fix 2.4 2.8 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2 Modificarea stocurilor 1.9 -2.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cererea interna 12.9 8.7 14.1 10.7 9.6 8.9 8.0 7.7 7.9 7.6 Export net -4.5 -4.5 -6.4 -4.1 -3.3 -3.0 -2.1 -2.0 -2.2 -2.0 Export de bunuri si servicii 4.8 2.9 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Import de bunuri si servicii 9.3 7.5 9.9 7.4 6.2 5.8 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.7 Consum final 8.7 8.1 10.1 7.3 6.4 5.9 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.4 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 9.7 6.7 9.6 6.8 5.8 5.5 4.7 4.2 4.3 4.1 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental -1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 14  Prognoza preliminară de primăvară Comisia Naţională de Prognoză aprilie 2007 STRUCTURA PRODUSULUI INTERN BRUT PE ELEMENTE DE CHELTUIELI -%- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Consum final 85.3 87.6 87.9 86.9 86.3 85.5 84.4 83.5 83.2 82.5 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 77.5 78.5 78.8 78.2 77.7 77.3 76.5 75.9 75.8 75.4 Cheltuiala pentru consum final a populatiei 67.9 68.2 68.7 68.4 68.3 68.1 67.7 67.4 67.5 67.4 Cheltuiala de consum individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 9.7 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.4 8.2 8.0 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm publice 7.8 9.2 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.2 Formarea bruta a capitalului 23.8 22.7 24.2 25.7 26.6 27.6 28.2 29.5 30.7 32.0 Formarea bruta de capital fix 21.8 23.1 24.6 26.3 27.5 28.8 30.0 31.2 32.3 33.5 Modificarea stocurilor 1.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 Cererea interna 109.1 110.3 112.1 112.6 112.8 113.1 112.6 1