Climă/Teme de date INSPIRE (în conformitate cu anexele la Directiva 2007/2/CE ) / RO-Data.xlsx

n winter and changes in the seasonal cycle of river flows will favor a tendency towards reduced water supply, especially in warm season, in river basins from Southern and Eastern Romania. This pattern of change will intensify competition between different water users, such as those in electricity generation, agriculture, industry, tourism, and households. Climate vulnerability together with the climate exposure is a component of the impact of climate hazards on human systems and ecosystems. In this context, the climate-related hazards due to temperature increase (e.g., heat waves, wildfires, droughts), and precipitation modifications (droughts, episodes with extreme precipitation, floods) affect all socio-economic sectors in Romania. However, climate change will not have the same impact for all population categories. Some communities will have to face greater challenges than others. For instance, climate impacts will be stronger for those living in climate-sensitive areas, such as large urban agglomerations, floodplains or plains most affected by drought. Moreover, climate-related vulnerability is amplified by poor infrastructure but also it changes with age, sex, poverty level and chronic diseases of people. Vulnerability to climate change in Romania was analyzed for some sectors, such as energy, transport, urban environment, water resources, agriculture and forestry. Hazards L1 AC_Temperature_Heat_wave_Observed AC_Temperature_Cold_wave_frost_Observed AC_Temperature_Wildfire_Observed AC_Wind_Cyclone_Observed AC_Wind_Storm_Observed AC_Wind_Tornado_Observed AC_Water_Drought_Observed AC_Water_Heavy_precipitation_Observed AC_Water_Flood_Observed AC_Water_Snow_and_ice_load_Observed AC_Water_Glacial_lake_outburst_Observed AC_SolidMass_Avalanche_Observed AC_SolidMass_Landslide_Observed AC_SolidMass_Subsidence_Observed CH_Temperature_Changing_temperature_Observed CH_Temperature_Temperature_variability_Observed CH_Temperature_Permafrost_thawing_Observed CH_Wind_Changing_wind_patterns_Observed CH_Water_Changing_precipitation_patterns_and_types_Observed CH_Water_Precipitation_hydrological_variability_Observed CH_Water_Ocean_acidification_Observed CH_Water_Saline_intrusion_Observed CH_Water_Seal_level_rise_Observed CH_Water_Change_in_sea_ice_cover_Observed CH_Water_Water_scarcity_Observed CH_SolidMass_Coastal_erosion_Observed CH_SolidMass_Sol_degradation_Observed CH_SolidMass_Soil_erosion_Observed CH_SolidMass_Solifluction_Observed AC_Temperature_Heat_wave_Future AC_Temperature_Cold_wave_frost_Future AC_Temperature_Wildfire_Future AC_Wind_Cyclone_Future AC_Wind_Storm_Future AC_Wind_Tornado_Future AC_Water_Drought_Future AC_Water_Heavy_precipitation_Future AC_Water_Flood_Future AC_Water_Snow_and_ice_load_Future AC_Water_Glacial_lake_outburst_Future AC_SolidMass_Avalanche_Future AC_SolidMass_Landslide_Future AC_SolidMass_Subsidence_Future CH_Temperature_Changing_temperature_Future CH_Temperature_Temperature_variability_Future CH_Temperature_Permafrost_thawing_Future CH_Wind_Changing_wind_patterns_Future CH_Water_Changing_precipitation_patterns_and_types_Future CH_Water_Precipitation_hydrological_variability_Future CH_Water_Ocean_acidification_Future CH_Water_Saline_intrusion_Future CH_Water_Seal_level_rise_Future CH_Water_Change_in_sea_ice_cover_Future CH_Water_Water_scarcity_Future CH_SolidMass_Coastal_erosion_Future CH_SolidMass_Sol_degradation_Future CH_SolidMass_Soil_erosion_Future CH_SolidMass_Solifluction_Future DescribeExistingEnvironmental DescribeSecondaryEffects L2 YES YES YES NO YES NO YES YES YES YES NO NO NO NO YES YES YES YES NO NO NO NO YES NO YES YES NO NO NO + significantly increasing = without significant change ? evolution uncertain or unknown 0 hazard not of relevance ? evolution uncertain or unknown ? evolution uncertain or unknown + significantly increasing + significantly increasing = without significant change - significantly decreasing 0 hazard not of relevance ? evolution uncertain or unknown ? evolution uncertain or unknown ? evolution uncertain or unknown + significantly increasing + significantly increasing + significantly increasing = without significant change = without significant change ? evolution uncertain or unknown 0 hazard not of relevance ? evolution uncertain or unknown + significantly increasing 0 hazard not of relevance ? evolution uncertain or unknown ? evolution uncertain or unknown 0 hazard not of relevance ? evolution uncertain or unknown ? evolution uncertain or unknown OtherHazards L1 HazardTitle HazardCategory OtherHazardObserved OtherHazardFuture KeyAffectedSectors L1 id L2 AffectedSectors L1 SectorDescribe SectorTitle ImpactsKeyHazards ImpactVariation DescribeImpactsKeyHazards KeyHazardsLikelihood LikelihoodVariability DescribeLikelihood Vulnerability VulnerabilityVariability DescribeVulnerability RiskFutureImpacts RiskVariability DescribeRisk L2 Agriculture agriculture and food medium different geographical regions within the country Drought is one of the major natural processes of interest for agriculture. In Romania, from a total surface of 237.500 km2, 62% are agricultural lands – approximately 14.7 million ha – categorized according to usage as arable land, pastures, vineyards and orchards. Frequent and prolonged drought affects 7.1 million ha, which represent 48% of the total agricultural land (2006), about 25% of the arable land being affect in 2019. Since the 1980s the incidence of extreme drought has steadily increased and since 2000 there have been 6 growing seasons with large rainfall deficits which significantly diminished crop yields. Climate change in Romania in recent years has led to drought in some wine regions in the south of the country, with negative effects on the production of grapes for wine. high different climate change scenarios The climate change is affecting the amount and seasonality of rainfall, therefore, evapotranspiration may lead to shorter growing seasons and a higher risk regarding the lack of water for the crops. Floods or flash floods can also occur frequently due to melting snow, increase of precipitation, river blockage or overflow of rivers. Soil erosion is another problem that the agriculture sector is facing. high different key hazards Overall the agricultural sector appears highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and it is expected that the livelihoods of many rural people will be increasingly affected by the changing climatic conditions that are predicted. The risk of impact is not equally distributed. There are regional differences in the likelihood of negative impacts such as drought and extreme rainfall events, as well differences in the vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity of rural actors and communities to climate change. Differences which are further accentuated by the huge polarity in farm size and structure that is characteristic of the ARD sector in Romania. Probably one of the most affected groups of producers will be subsistence farmers in the lowlands, especially in southern and south-eastern Romania. Key vulnerabilities are: • reduced agricultural productivity; • water supply for rural consumers; • other social (e.g. human health) and economic hazards for rural communities and households, and; • environment and the 'health' of natural ecosystems. Adaptation is clearly also a high priority – progressive climate change is occurring and significant impacts upon the sector are developing. The agriculture sector needs to start responding more rapidly to prepare for future impacts and there is a need to build both the resilience and adaptive capacity of the two ARD sub-sectors (the large commercial farms and the communities of small-scale subsistence farms) (World Bank 2014). medium different climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards Romania is already increasingly encountering the negative impacts of climate change (including extreme events) and the modelling of future climate trends suggests that these negative impacts will continue to become more severe. These impacts include: (i) the increased incidence of severe flooding with the associated social and economic disruption and costs; (ii) the increased frequency and intensity of drought; (iii) increased risk of soil erosion by wind and water; (iv) the risk of desertification and associated land degradation, notably in southern and eastern Romania; and (v) reduced agricultural productivity. Overall, the possible consequences of climate change will increase significantly the risk of calamities in the agricultural sector, depending on the duration and severity of the extreme weather events, moreover, the negative effects could also contribute at the reduction of the financial security for farmers in many regions, especially in the south and southeast of the country. L3 Biodiversity biodiversity (including ecosystembased approaches) low different geographical regions within the country According to the current National Climate Change Strategy, climate change is not considered a major threat, but this conclusion is affected by the methods used to estimate values and trends, taking into account that only 30% of habitat data and less than 20% of species data has been obtained from complete studies. low different climate change scenarios Rising temperatures, increasing frequency of extreme temperatures, changes in precipitation and their seasonal distribution, declining snowfall and the number of frost days in winter, rising water temperatures associated with increasing drought frequency and declining groundwater resources are the main abiotic factors that affect biodiversity. The risk generated by these events for the biodiversity sector is evaluated at being low. high different geographical regions within the country The main threats to biodiversity generated by extreme weather events are represented by (World Bank 2014):: - Changing the behaviour of species as a result of stress induced on their adaptation ability, a shorter period of hibernation or lack of it, especially affecting bears and bats species. - Changes in the distribution and composition of natural habitats as a result of changes occurred in their structure, with the most vulnerable habitats being represented by wetlands, high mountains, lakes, rivers and streams, marine and aquatic ecosystems. - Increased invasion of non-native species in the current existing natural habitats and increasing their potential to become invasive. - Threat to wild animals, especially species with low mobility and / or low population, due to the risk of forest fires. - Increasing risk of soil erosion. low different climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country According to the future climate projections over the 21st century, if the average temperature will increase by 3 degrees Celsius by 2070, over 30% of the territory will be affected by desertification and approximately 38% from severe aridization, encompassing all the plains, 85% of the hill and plateau area and 20% of the low mountain areas L4 Urban and rural buildings low different key hazards The observed impacts of key hazards are different from the urban to the rural buildings. Floods due to heavy rains or melting of the snow, droughts or heat islands are a common problem that Romania’s building sector is facing. Cities have long held a central place of importance in society as hubs of commerce, culture, and political power. Because of climate change, however, the clustering together of large numbers of people and high levels of economic activity also creates vulnerabilities. Some will be found directly within a city: people living and working in coastal areas or in river floodplains may be subject to the impacts of sea level rise or extreme rainfall events that put their lives or businesses at peril. Urban climate change can also take other forms, however, including situations where impacts occurring far outside of a city can affect systems (e.g. water or energy supply) essential to life within the city. high different climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country Floods, storms, droughts or other climate change related events will affect both the rural and urban building sector, depending on the magnitude of the event. medium different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards In general, the buildings in Romania respect certain construction standards and are built in such a way that they are adapted to the country's climate. However, in the event of extreme weather events, the building sector may be affected. In terms of climate adaptation/resilience, planning activity has largely taken the form of disaster planning which is required under national law, although the quality or breadth of these plans is quite unclear. medium different climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards National level climate studies project that Romania will get warmer and that both drought and extreme rainfall events will become increasingly commonplace in the coming century, although strong regional differences will remain. There is, however, a dearth of knowledge about how Romanian cities will be affected by climate change, as there has been very little research undertaken to statistically ‘downscale’ global climate models to provide a more granular, local picture of how circumstances will change in the coming decades. L5 Industry industry low different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards The main climate risks to which the industrial sector is exposed are associated with negative effects on infrastructure caused by natural phenomena associated with climate change, such as heat, precipitation, wind, floods or other climate related effects low different climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards The incidence of risks depends on the type of business and the type of climate risk that affects this sector. medium different key hazards 67% of water demand is based on industry, with 95% dependence on surface waters for industrial supply. From a quantitative perspective, a majority of the basins have no serious problems in ensuring sufficient volume for water for meeting the domestic and industrial demands. However, the basins with lower endowment of water (Jiu, Arges-Vedea, Buzau-Ialomita, Siret, Prut-Barlad, and Dobrogea-Litoral) face supply reliability challenges during the summer months, especially in dry years. The Dobrogea-Litoral basin is the most severely affected in this regard. Despite the risks and possible losses, the industrial sector is less prepared to cope to the impacts of climate change, especially regarding with the problems caused by climate events that have a high degree of uncertainty. Awareness of adaptation to climate change in the industrial sector is low. The damage and economic costs that the industry sector may face can be high, when extreme weather events occur. medium different climate change scenarios; different geographical regions within the country; different key hazards The risk of potential future impacts is variable depending on the different industry sectors and the climate hazards that may occur in the future. Their risks and effects could include high operating and maintenance costs due to interruption of work processes due to extreme weather conditions, uncertain modification of risk profiles for disaster insurance and increasing costs for insurace for industrial raw materials and products, losses and / or damages to the water infrastructure due to floods or power outages in the event of drought, compromising the acces to industrial sites or certain areas due to floods, landslides or due to damages caused by these types of events. Also, the supply of raw materials can significantly be affected by climate change (World Bank, 2014). L6 Coastal Area coastal areas medium different key hazards The sea level is rising making the low-lying coasts such as the Danube Delta to become increasingly vulnerable to marine hazards (e.g. marine storms), with associated changes in the dynamic of coastline and coastal degradation (coastal erosion). The estimated rates of sea level rise over the entire Black Sea Basin, based on gridded satellite altimetry data over 1993-2017, was of up to 2.5 mm/year. Local trends observed in the Romanian coastal area of the Black Sea (1933-2004) suggest a sea level rise ranging between 0.36 cm/year in the north (Sulina) and 0.17 cm/year in the south (Constanța). Other adverse effects of the observed climate change on coastal areas of Romania are related to saltwater intrusions. Climate change also determines an alteration in time of storm patterns with the Black Sea Basin, manifested as shortening of the storm duration especially due to the tendency of the storm decay phase to shorten, in accordance with the shift of the prevailing direction of storm forcing winds to the north. Most evident changes in marine storminess have been observed since 2006, when the wave and wind proxies displayed the lowest values and point to an overall decreasing trend in storminess. The observed change in storm climate (2003-2014) was associated with a reduction in the northern storm frequency which brought about a more important contribution to the southern storms and an overall drop in storminess. These changes are associated with a slight tendency of increasing beach and dune stability in the Danube Delta coastal areas. There are no clear trends related to the recurrence of extreme storms. medium different climate change scenarios; different key hazards Future projections for the 21st century show that the sea level in the Black Sea Basin will increase and it is likely to affect the state of the Danube Delta and the coastal zone ecosystems, exposing the low-elevation