Climă/Teme de date INSPIRE (în conformitate cu anexele la Directiva 2007/2/CE ) / RO-Data.xlsx

h are included in RBON (Regional Basic Observing Network), as they are declared in OSCAR/Surface platform. Also, NMA has submitted and updated climate data to the portal European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA & D) (http://www.ecad.eu/). In addition to the monitoring activities of the NMA, systematic observations are also recorded by National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management for hydrological-related climate indicators and Black Sea climate. The GeoEcoMar institute performs climate relevant measurements of oceanographic, marine ecosystem and geological indicators in the Black Sea. Institute for Marine Research (Constanta) also performs measurements of climate related indicators of Black Sea climate ecosystems. The GeoEcoMar and Institute for Marine Research contribute to EuroGoos and Black Sea GOOS. National and local agencies for environmental protection gather data related to atmospheric constituents and pollutants. Climate modelling, projections and scenarios: A new activity branch of regional climate modelling for high resolution climate projections and climate predictions (monthly- seasonal) has been developed recently in Romania at the NMA. The main objective is to bring added value fine-scale information on climate projections estimates (and uncertainty) at sub-regional scale, that is the scale needed for impact assessment, preparedness and climate change mitigation. Fine scale is also needed to better represent climate extremes and changes in their location, intensity, frequency and duration. A sum of new climate services based on NMA's regional modeling (high-resolution) products are prepared and still this aspect can be far more exploited in the near-future. Among the main achievements to date are: - i) a new operational chain of seasonal prediction downscaling at fine resolution for Romania (twice a week - providing monthly forecast and monthly - providing 6 month forecast). The seasonal prediction downscaling chain is fully operational down to visualisation of output uploaded on NAM internal Platform and derived products, offering information-support More research directions are ongoing around these, and potential climate services foreseen; -ii) the realisation of first high-resolution dynamical climate projections for Romania (5km - RCP8.5), accomplished now for the time horizon 2040 (Azure-2 Microsoft project); - iii) user-oriented scenarios for Romania were performed at high resolution: a combined land-use (Volante project) / emission RCP8.5 scenarios was implemented and run to investigate the range of response to land use management in the time horizon 2050 (Azure-1 project); - iv) this year we start developing oriented use of the high-resolution modeling chain towards new climate services. In the frame of PED-Uefiscdi project together with project partners we aim to provide a climate service aiming to identify, validate (laboratory) and provide a generalised tool for assessing maize ideotype suitable for Romania under climate change, near-term (2050). These operational developments implied and continuously require related research activity. The research focus is actually on: - i) new developments and extensive validation of the modelling chain results to constantly increase the prediction skill and reliability of regional climate projections; - ii) seasonal predictability actual concern issues e.g.: large-scale and regional prediction sources for the region; improved estimates of the uncertainty; accurate initialisation of extended predictions as a main prediction skill-source; specific focus on accounting for the main regional forcing that is a potential source of predictability: land-cover and its dynamics, the Black sea and Romania's lakes temperature; snow layer dynamics; regional O3/ aerosol/ GHG variability; iii) research on new learning techniques able to provide support in computer-demanding issues of the modeling e.g. ensemble members selection for uncertainty reduction; iv) assess changes in regional climate extremes ranges and mechanisms and optimise the communication and dissemination of related uncertainties and probabilities as a broad support in various planning; v) oriented research for regional climate services and products (agro-climate; hydrology; coastal - published). In the SUSCAP project, four climate parameters (i.e. maximum, mean and minimum air temperature and precipitation amount) from 10 regional climate models, provided by the EURO-CORDEX initiative, were adjusted using as reference the ROCADA gridded dataset . The adjustment was performed on a daily temporal resolution for the historical period (1971–2005), as well as for climate change scenarios based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The adjusted RCMs are provided without any restrictions via an open-access repository in netCDF CF-1.4-compliant file format. The BC climate models are archived at the 0.1° spatial resolution, in the WGS-84 coordinate system, at a daily temporal resolution . National and International collaborations: the regional modeling activity is linked to international networks e.g.: PANNEX (Pannonian Regional Climate Group) with periodic exchange on methods and results; CORDEX consortium (with foreseen upload of downscaling simulations over Romania into the CORDEX databasis). At national level we aim to develop collaborative work with stakeholders and potential users of these products to develop user-oriented climate scenarios and predictive information (energy, urban development, vulnerable areas, flooding, drought, heat waves, etc). Also, statistical analyses of observations, reanalysis data, and results based on the ensembles of numerical experiments with global and regional climate models are systematically performed to continuously update the knowledge about climate variability and change in Romania. Climate modelling has been developed in recent years in NMA. The methodologies are in-line with most recent research and operational activity in regional climate modeling Centers at International level, with the broadness allowed by local computing resources. The regional modelling chain is based on the RegCMV4.6 model developed through international cooperation at ICTP, that is a state-of-the art model part of the CORDEX ensemble. This model was adapted and optimised for high-resolution runs over Romania: an optimal model configuration for Romania was determined using Machine Learning/Genetic Algorithms that allowed to identify the best cross-physical parameterisations choice for the domain. This optimised configuration was used for climate scenarios’ downscaling, where the regional model was coupled to three global models: Ec-Earth, MPI, CNRM and produced refined projections (5km) and uncertainty estimates on the time-horizon 2040. For seasonal prediction new forcing is updated in the physical parameterisations: sea surface temperature (actually from coastal stations and marine platform) was implemented and validated (anomaly initialisation method), and is ongoing for snow layer depth and soil moisture initialisation (remote sensing). The prediction chain performs the dynamical downscaling of the SYS5-ECMWF ensemble forecast over Romania, currently for a reduced ensemble member (4) meanwhile with alternate procedure for optimal selection under investigation. Off-line coupling of the regional climate modeling chain was performed with hydrological models and applied at very high resolution (3km) in flood prediction. Ongoing is the coupling with Phenological models (DSSAT and auxiliary models) for agro-climate projections (Prepclim project). Other off-line coupling is performing prediction of storm tracks (density, persistence) for the 1-6 months and prediction of drought indices SPEI for the following 6 months, using locally developed software. Apart from the high-resolution downscaling chain NMA makes use of all state-of-the art available information from projects such as COPERNICUS, ESA and applies specific post-processing of output from global centers, actually: SYS5-ECMWF, JMA, NCEP-CFS, in the support of extended prediction. This post processing performs predicted anomaly reconstruction (scaling model-variability into local climate observed-variability), shifting it to a same reference climatology among various models and reconstructing the predicted full-field relative to local climate. Uncertainty: The uncertainty is estimated from perturbations of the large-scale initial and lateral boundary information in the SYS5-ECMWF system. In situations where the spread is not relevant, we apply perturbations in regional model physics. Challenges: the main challenge is the computing resources and storage. Both extended prediction and regional climate scenarios are big consumers and require ensemble simulations to cover the uncertainties in these simulations. This even more becomes challenging when talking about high resolution as required for impact assessment and extremes analysis. Analyses of climate variability and change use a variety of multivariate statistical techniques and statistical downscaling procedures to project the climate signals on finer scales appropriate for adaptation goals. NMA has developed datasets from climate models at the level of Local Administrative Units (LAUs) to serve local administration in planning adaptation to climate change and sustainable development. Meteorological_Observations L1 Name Status WebLink L2 National Meteorological Administration Established www.meteoromania.ro Climate_Projections_Services L1 Description Status WebLink L2 identification of maize ideotypes, optimal sowing dates & nitrogen fertilization Established shorturl.at/uvEQR L3 WECTOU portal is a free service that is providing climate and environmental tourism information Established http://wectou.meteoromania.ro/ L4 IMDROFLOOD geoportal, information about drought and floods Established http://imdroflood.meteoromania.ro/ L5 SUSCAP dashboard presents climate change aspects in Romania related to the SUSCAP project, based on RoCliB Dataset (https://zenodo.org/record/6336837#.ZAChtuxBwXU) Established http://suscap.meteoromania.ro/en/roclib ObservedFutureClimateHazards L1 GeneralAspectsAssessment TimeHorizon DescribeExistingEnvironmental DescribeSecondaryEffects L2 Romania is at risk from a range of hazards, including natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes, floods, and droughts), epidemics/pandemics, and technological accidents. Higher temperatures and increasing rainfall variability cause more intense and frequent flood and drought events, affecting water supply, agriculture, energy, and transport. The potential damage to natural, physical, and human assets from natural disasters can curtail economic growth, jeopardize fiscal sustainability, and affect the well-being of Romania’s population—especially in poorer counties. mid century (2050) Romania is prone to a range of natural disasters, epidemics/pandemics, and technological accidents. 101 catastrophic events were recorded in the country between 1900 and 2021—including 53 floods, 11 earthquakes, 20 extreme temperature events, 11 storms, and two major droughts—affecting over 2 million people, and causing nearly 5,000 deaths and more than US$17.2 billion in losses and damages. Notably, Romania is among the EU countries at highest risk of earthquakes and floods from fluvial and surface water. More than 75 percent of the country’s population lives in areas susceptible to earthquakes, with Bucharest widely regarded as the most seismically risky city in Europe. The potential risks and damages from flooding and seismic events are on the rise due to climate change and aging infrastructure. The government liability from losses in the event of a major disaster could exceed 0.4 percent of GDP, considering the vulnerability of the residential building stock (estimated to account for more than 50 percent of potential losses) and of public assets. Romania needs to substantially reduce exposure to disaster and climate risk in both the private and public sectors, incentivize the uptake of household and public-asset insurance, and consider making use of sovereign-level financial instruments (e.g., contingent financing and catastrophe bonds). As of 2020, Romania’s building stock comprised more than 5.5 million buildings—with residential buildings accounting for more than 90 percent of the total, followed by educational and commercial buildings. Most public assets are owned or managed by local authorities, which thus have major role to play in strengthening disaster and climate resilience. Disasters also affect people’s livelihoods and well-being, pushing families into poverty. The Social Vulnerability Index shows that high levels of vulnerability correlate with low disaster resilience in peripheral rural areas, which are especially exposed to risk from earthquakes and floods. Urban areas also show signs of social vulnerability. Disaster impacts are also increasing due to the concentration of people and economic assets and climate change. Forest fires, droughts, landslides, strong winds, and extreme heat also pose significant threats, with climate change likely to increase the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters. At the same time, adaptation readiness in Romania is relatively low, as highlighted in the SCD 2018 and the ECA CCAP. The MunichRe NatCat database estimates €12 billion of losses (99 percent of which were not insured) and almost 1,322 fatalities in the country since 1980 due to climatological and hydrometeorological events. Notably, natural disasters and climate risk disproportionately affect Romania’s poorer counties. Climate change is causing greater variability in precipitation, leading to increasingly severe flood and drought events and attendant water security challenges. This will significantly increase the challenges of Romania’s water sector to safely provide water for consumption, agriculture, and energy production, and to protect the society, economy and environment from flooding. Water security is at stake already under current climate condition. The existing water infrastructure assets, including many reservoirs and flood defences, have significant shortcomings, and may collapse under the strain of a changing climate. Both infrastructure and institutions for managing water resources, and especially water-related risk, need urgent modernization and reinforcement. Challenges in the water sector enhance vulnerability in energy and agriculture. More severe and frequent droughts will impact hydro and nuclear power generation, which account for around 30 and 20 percent of electricity generation in Romania, respectively. Enhancing energy-sector resilience calls for improving the management of water resources and the efficiency of hydropower generation infrastructure, diversifying energy sources, reducing demand pressure through energy efficiency measures, and investing in additional capacity to offset potential hydropower reduction during dry periods. Moreover, the agriculture sector is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of fragmented land holdings, inadequate agricultural extensions services, lack of modern and efficient irrigation/drainage systems that could reduce dependency on rain-fed production, and poorly developed ICT systems to share information and provide advisory and support services to farmers, particularly smallholders who struggle to access such services through traditional market channels. Although Romania’s vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters is relatively high, its readiness to adapt remains low. Romania has been strengthening its legislative and organizational framework for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. However, the investment required to support effective climate policies and disaster risk reduction remains limited, with missed opportunities to maximize adaptation and the inclusion co-benefits achievable when improving public and private assets. Preparing for catastrophic events requires better cross-institutional coordination, and increased horizontal and vertical capacity. In addition, the social protection system is not well placed to adapt to climate-induced shocks, lacking capacity to integrate data on poverty and natural disasters to identify vulnerabilities. Coordination between the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) sector and the social protection system is limited, as shown by the lack of early-action trigger disbursement mechanisms to support communities in case of need. Significant climate changes are still expected during the next decades in Romania. Soon (2021- 2050), the most pressing consequences are those related to the increase in the average monthly temperature (by more than 3 °C during the summer) and the reduction of the average monthly precipitation amounts (8-9% during the summer), under the most pessimistic scenario, with implications in electricity generation, agriculture, and water resource management. Projections also show that changes in average temperature and precipitation occur along with changes in the statistics of extreme events. The number of days with heat waves will also increase, especially in the southern, southeastern, and western regions of the country, so an increased vulnerability to heat. The intensity of the precipitation will increase throughout the country, but more pronounced in the mountain areas, which can favor flash floods. The impact of increased precipitation intensity is higher in urban areas where the soil is sealed from the atmosphere to a high degree. Averaged snow depth and snow extent have been further reduced and these trends will continue in the future. The increased evapotranspiration and the downward trend of precipitation amount in summer, corroborated with the reduction of snow depths in the cold season, the change of liquid/solid precipitation ratio i