Prognoza pe termen mediu 2008-2013 – varianta preliminara de primavara 2008 (pdf)

48,8 49,6 49,0 49,0 49,3 50,0 50,8 52,0 Comert, hoteluri si restaurante, transport si comunicatii 21,6 22,4 23,1 23,1 23,5 24,1 24,9 25,8 26,9 Financiar-bancar si asigurari, servicii pentru intreprinderi 12,9 13,0 13,2 13,2 13,2 13,2 13,3 13,5 13,8 Alte servicii 14,4 13,3 13,4 12,7 12,3 12,0 11,8 11,5 11,3 Total economie 88,3 88,3 88,9 89,4 89,8 90,2 90,7 91,2 91,5 Impozite nete pe produs 11,7 11,7 11,1 10,6 10,2 9,8 9,3 8,8 8,5 PRODUS INTERN BRUT 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 Nota: Structura s-a calculat pe baza valorilor nominale 12 Comisia Naţională de Prognoză COMPONENTELE DE UTILIZARE A PIB - modificări procentuale fata de anul precedent - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Produs intern brut - mld. lei 288.2 344.5 404.7 475.0 546.8 618.3 692.7 769.3 841.0 - crestere reala % 4.2 7.9 6.0 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 Cererea interna 7.9 12.7 13.2 9.5 8.3 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.7 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 9.6 9.3 10.0 8.1 7.2 6.6 5.7 5.5 5.3 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 9.4 11.4 10.2 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.0 5.7 5.6 Cheltuiala cu consumul final al populatiei 9.9 12.6 11.2 9.3 8.4 7.5 6.4 6.0 5.9 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 6.1 3.7 4.1 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 3.6 2.8 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 11.8 -9.9 7.4 5.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.5 Formarea bruta a capitalului 1.8 26.2 23.5 13.4 11.3 10.4 10.9 10.3 9.8 Formarea bruta de capital fix 12.7 19.3 28.9 18.0 13.5 11.0 10.0 9.5 9.0 Variatia stocurilor (Contrib.la cresterea reala a PIB) -2.3 1.5 -1.2 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Export net (Contributia la cresterea reala a PIB) -4.4 -6.2 -8.7 -4.3 -3.4 -2.8 -2.3 -1.9 -1.6 Export de bunuri si servicii 7.7 10.6 8.7 11.5 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.4 8.8 Import de bunuri si servicii 16.0 22.4 26.1 17.5 14.2 13.4 12.5 11.7 10.9 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 9.6 9.3 10.0 8.1 7.2 6.6 5.7 5.5 5.3 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 9.9 12.4 11.0 9.1 8.3 7.4 6.4 5.9 5.8 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 8.5 -3.1 5.6 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.4 2.7 13  Comisia Naţională de Prognoză UTILIZAREA PRODUSULUI INTERN BRUT - mld. lei si indici - 2005 2006 2007 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret volum 2004 pret curent volum 2005 pret curent volum 2006 pret curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 104.2 256.8 112.2 288.2 107.9 310.8 110.8 344.5 106.0 365.4 110.8 404.7 Cererea interna 107.9 290.1 109.5 317.5 112.7 358.0 107.8 386.0 113.2 436.9 105.9 462.5 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 109.6 230.4 109.5 252.3 109.3 275.6 106.9 294.8 110.0 324.1 105.8 342.8 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 109.4 209.0 108.6 226.9 111.4 252.8 106.2 268.6 110.2 296.0 105.3 311.6 Cheltuiala cu consumul final al populatiei 109.9 183.8 107.2 197.0 112.6 221.8 105.2 233.2 111.2 259.2 104.7 271.4 -- cumparari de marfuri 120.7 99.8 106.1 106.0 118.8 125.9 104.5 131.6 119.3 157.0 103.4 162.4 -- servicii 108.8 28.7 112.1 32.2 112.9 36.3 109.2 39.7 105.1 41.7 106.2 44.3 -- autoconsum si piata taraneasca 89.2 28.1 99.9 28.1 102.2 28.7 103.8 29.8 90.2 26.8 112.2 30.1 -- alte servicii 101.8 27.1 113.7 30.8 100.4 30.9 104.1 32.2 104.6 33.7 102.8 34.6 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 106.1 25.3 118.5 29.9 103.7 31.0 113.9 35.4 104.1 36.8 109.4 40.2 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 111.8 21.4 118.7 25.3 90.1 22.8 114.7 26.2 107.4 28.1 110.8 31.1 Formarea bruta a capitalului 101.8 59.7 109.3 65.3 126.2 82.4 110.8 91.3 123.5 112.8 106.2 119.8 Formarea bruta de capital fix 112.7 60.7 109.6 66.5 119.3 79.4 111.2 88.3 128.9 113.8 108.4 123.3 Variatia stocurilor (Contrib.proc.la cresterea PIB real) -2.3% 1.5% -1.2% Export net (contrib.proc la cresterea PIB real) -4.4% -33.3 -29.4 -6.2% -47.2 -41.5 -8.7% -71.6 -57.8 Export de bunuri si servicii 107.7 95.4 100.2 95.6 110.6 105.7 105.1 111.2 108.7 120.9 101.9 123.2 Import de bunuri si servicii 116.0 128.7 97.1 125.0 122.4 152.9 99.8 152.7 126.1 192.4 94.1 181.0 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 109.6 230.4 109.5 252.3 109.3 275.6 106.9 294.8 110.0 324.1 105.8 342.8 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 109.9 187.2 107.3 200.8 112.4 225.8 105.2 237.5 111.0 263.7 104.7 276.2 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 108.5 43.2 119.2 51.5 96.9 49.9 114.7 57.2 105.6 60.4 110.3 66.6 14  Comisia Naţională de Prognoză - continuare - - mld.lei si indici 2008 2009 2010 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret volum 2007 pret curent volum 2008 pret curent volum 2009 pret curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 106.5 431.0 110.2 475.0 106.1 504.0 108.5 546.8 105.8 578.5 106.9 618.3 Cererea interna 109.5 506.3 107.2 542.6 108.3 587.8 104.6 614.9 107.6 661.9 103.9 687.5 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 108.1 370.5 106.2 393.4 107.2 421.8 104.2 439.7 106.6 468.5 103.5 485.1 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 108.4 337.8 105.9 357.8 107.7 385.2 104.1 401.2 106.9 429.0 103.4 443.8 Cheltuiala cu consumul final al populatiei 109.3 296.5 105.6 313.2 108.4 339.4 104.0 353.1 107.5 379.6 103.4 392.3 -- cumparari de marfuri 113.0 183.4 106.0 194.4 111.5 216.6 104.2 225.7 110.0 248.2 103.5 256.9 -- servicii 105.4 46.7 107.0 49.9 105.6 52.7 105.0 55.4 106.0 58.7 104.0 61.1 -- autoconsum si piata taraneasca 102.3 30.8 105.0 32.3 101.5 32.8 103.5 34.0 101.2 34.4 103.0 35.4 -- alte servicii 103.0 35.7 102.5 36.6 101.8 37.2 102.0 38.0 101.0 38.3 101.7 39.0 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 102.5 41.3 108.0 44.6 102.8 45.8 105.0 48.1 102.7 49.4 104.2 51.5 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 105.0 32.7 109.0 35.6 102.7 36.6 105.3 38.5 102.5 39.5 104.5 41.3 Formarea bruta a capitalului 113.4 135.9 109.8 149.2 111.3 166.0 105.5 175.2 110.4 193.4 104.7 202.4 Formarea bruta de capital fix 118.0 145.5 108.7 158.2 113.5 179.5 107.0 192.1 111.0 213.2 105.0 223.9 Variatia stocurilor (Contrib.proc.la cresterea PIB real) -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% Export net (contrib.proc la cresterea PIB real) -4.3% -75.3 -67.6 -3.4% -83.8 -68.1 -2.8% -83.4 -69.2 Export de bunuri si servicii 111.5 137.3 113.8 156.3 110.0 171.9 103.5 177.9 109.9 195.5 103.0 201.3 Import de bunuri si servicii 117.5 212.6 105.3 223.9 114.2 255.7 96.2 246.0 113.4 278.9 97.0 270.5 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 108.1 370.5 106.2 393.4 107.2 421.8 104.2 439.7 106.6 468.5 103.5 485.1 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 109.1 301.4 105.6 318.3 108.3 344.6 104.0 358.4 107.4 385.1 103.3 398.0 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 103.7 69.1 108.7 75.1 102.8 77.2 105.2 81.2 102.7 83.4 104.4 87.1 15  Comisia Naţională de Prognoză - continuare - - mld.lei si indici - 2011 2012 2013 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret de la pret volum 2010 pret curent volum 2011 pret curent volum 2012 pret curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 105.8 653.9 105.9 692.7 105.7 732.4 105.0 769.3 105.7 813.1 103.4 841.0 Cererea interna 107.2 737.1 103.2 760.4 107.0 813.2 102.5 833.8 106.7 889.9 101.2 900.2 Cheltuielile pentru consum final 105.7 512.7 102.9 527.7 105.5 556.6 102.6 571.1 105.3 601.4 102.3 615.0 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 106.0 470.4 102.9 484.1 105.7 511.7 102.6 525.1 105.6 554.2 102.3 566.8 Cheltuiala cu consumul final al populatiei 106.4 417.6 102.9 429.8 106.0 455.4 102.6 467.4 105.9 494.9 102.3 506.3 -- cumparari de marfuri 108.1 277.7 103.0 286.0 107.3 306.9 102.7 315.2 107.0 337.2 102.3 345.0 -- servicii 106.1 64.8 103.6 67.1 105.9 71.1 103.3 73.4 106.0 77.8 102.8 80.0 -- autoconsum si piata taraneasca 101.0 35.8 102.5 36.7 101.0 37.0 102.0 37.8 101.2 38.2 102.2 39.1 -- alte servicii 101.0 39.4 101.6 40.0 101.0 40.4 101.5 41.0 101.5 41.6 101.5 42.3 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 102.5 52.8 103.0 54.3 103.6 56.3 102.5 57.7 102.8 59.3 102.0 60.5 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 102.5 42.3 103.0 43.6 103.0 44.9 102.5 46.0 102.5 47.1 102.2 48.2 Formarea bruta a capitalului 110.9 224.4 103.7 232.6 110.3 256.7 102.3 262.7 109.8 288.5 98.8 285.2 Formarea bruta de capital fix 110.0 246.2 103.8 255.6 109.5 279.9 103.0 288.3 109.0 314.2 102.7 322.7 Variatia stocurilor (Contrib.proc.la cresterea PIB real) -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Export net (contrib.proc la cresterea PIB real) -2.3% -83.2 -67.7 -1.9% -80.8 -64.5 -1.6% -76.8 -59.2 Export de bunuri si servicii 109.9 221.2 103.3 228.6 109.4 250.2 103.8 259.6 108.8 282.4 102.8 290.4 Import de bunuri si servicii 112.5 304.4 97.3 296.3 111.7 331.0 97.9 324.0 110.9 359.2 97.3 349.6 Cheltuielile pentru consum final 105.7 512.7 102.9 527.7 105.5 556.6 102.6 571.1 105.3 601.4 102.3 615.0 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 106.4 423.3 102.9 435.6 105.9 461.4 102.6 473.5 105.8 501.1 102.3 512.6 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 102.6 89.3 103.1 92.1 103.4 95.2 102.6 97.6 102.7 100.3 102.1 102.4 16 Comisia Naţională de Prognoză CONTRIBUTII LA CRESTEREA REALA A PRODUSULUI INTERN BRUT -%- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Produs intern brut 4.2 7.9 6.0 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 Cererea interna 8.6 14.0 14.8 10.8 9.5 8.6 8.0 7.6 7.3 Cheltuielile pentru consum final 8.2 8.1 8.5 6.8 6.0 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.9 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodariilor 7.3 9.0 8.0 6.5 5.8 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.8 Cheltuiala cu consumul final a populatiei 6.7 8.6 7.5 6.2 5.5 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.6 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm.publice si al IFSLSG 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm publice 0.9 -0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Formarea bruta a capitalului 0.4 5.9 6.2 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.4 Formarea bruta de capital fix 2.8 4.5 7.4 5.5 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 Variatia stocurilor -2.3 1.5 -1.2 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Export net