Prognoza pe termen mediu 2008-2013 – varianta preliminara de toamna 2008 (pdf)

reala a PIB) -2,3 1,5 -1,2 -1.9 -0.9 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Export net (Contribuţia la creşterea reala a PIB) -4,4 -6,2 -8,7 -6.0 -3.3 -2.6 -2.1 -1.7 -1.5 Export de bunuri si servicii 7,7 10,6 8,7 22.7 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.4 8.8 Import de bunuri si servicii 16,0 22,4 26,1 28.9 14.2 13.4 12.5 11.7 10.9 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 9,6 9,3 10,0 10.4 7.2 6.7 5.8 5.6 5.3 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 9,9 12,4 11,0 12.0 8.2 7.6 6.4 6.1 5.9 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 8,5 -3,1 5,6 3.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.4 2.7 13  UTILIZAREA PRODUSULUI INTERN BRUT - mld. lei si indici - 2005 2006 2007 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ volum 2004 preţ curent volum 2005 preţ curent volum 2006 preţ curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 104.2 256.8 112.2 288.2 107.9 310.8 110.8 344.5 106.0 365.4 110.8 404.7 Cererea interna 107.9 290.1 109.5 317.5 112.7 358.0 107.8 386.0 113.2 436.9 105.9 462.5 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 109.6 230.4 109.5 252.3 109.3 275.6 106.9 294.8 110.0 324.1 105.8 342.8 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodăriilor 109.4 209.0 108.6 226.9 111.4 252.8 106.2 268.6 110.2 296.0 105.3 311.6 Cheltuiala cu consumul final al populaţiei 109.9 183.8 107.2 197.0 112.6 221.8 105.2 233.2 111.2 259.2 104.7 271.4 -- cumpărări de mărfuri 120.7 99.8 106.1 106.0 118.8 125.9 104.5 131.6 119.3 157.0 103.4 162.4 -- servicii 108.8 28.7 112.1 32.2 112.9 36.3 109.2 39.7 105.1 41.7 106.2 44.3 -- autoconsum si piaţa ţărănească 89.2 28.1 99.9 28.1 102.2 28.7 103.8 29.8 90.2 26.8 112.2 30.1 -- alte servicii 101.8 27.1 113.7 30.8 100.4 30.9 104.1 32.2 104.6 33.7 102.8 34.6 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm. publice si al IFSLSG 106.1 25.3 118.5 29.9 103.7 31.0 113.9 35.4 104.1 36.8 109.4 40.2 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 111.8 21.4 118.7 25.3 90.1 22.8 114.7 26.2 107.4 28.1 110.8 31.1 Formarea bruta a capitalului 101.8 59.7 109.3 65.3 126.2 82.4 110.8 91.3 123.5 112.8 106.2 119.8 Formarea bruta de capital fix 112.7 60.7 109.6 66.5 119.3 79.4 111.2 88.3 128.9 113.8 108.4 123.3 Variaţia stocurilor (Contrib.proc. la creşterea PIB real) -2.3% 1.5% -1.2% Export net (contrib.proc la creşterea PIB real) -4.4% -33.3 -29.4 -6.2% -47.2 -41.5 -8.7% -71.6 -57.8 Export de bunuri si servicii 107.7 95.4 100.2 95.6 110.6 105.7 105.1 111.2 108.7 120.9 101.9 123.2 Import de bunuri si servicii 116.0 128.7 97.1 125.0 122.4 152.9 99.8 152.7 126.1 192.4 94.1 181.0 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 109.6 230.4 109.5 252.3 109.3 275.6 106.9 294.8 110.0 324.1 105.8 342.8 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 109.9 187.2 107.3 200.8 112.4 225.8 105.2 237.5 111.0 263.7 104.7 276.2 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 108.5 43.2 119.2 51.5 96.9 49.9 114.7 57.2 105.6 60.4 110.3 66.6 14  - continuare - - mld. lei si indici 2008 2009 2010 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ volum 2007 preţ curent volum 2008 preţ curent volum 2009 preţ curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 109.1 441.6 114.3 505.0 106.5 537.9 110.2 592.9 106.3 630.4 107.7 678.7 Cererea interna 113.3 523.9 109.6 574.0 108.6 623.5 106.3 662.8 108.0 716.0 104.7 749.6 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 110.4 378.5 108.2 409.7 107.2 439.2 105.4 462.8 106.7 493.7 104.1 514.0 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodăriilor 111.0 346.0 108.1 373.9 107.6 402.4 105.3 423.7 107.1 453.6 104.0 472.0 Cheltuiala cu consumul final al populaţiei 112.2 304.5 107.6 327.7 108.3 354.9 105.2 373.3 107.7 401.9 103.9 417.7 -- cumpărări de mărfuri 118.0 191.6 107.5 206.0 111.2 229.1 105.5 241.7 110.0 265.7 104.1 276.6 -- servicii 107.0 47.4 107.0 50.7 106.0 53.8 106.0 57.0 106.5 60.7 104.6 63.5 -- autoconsum si piaţa ţărănească 102.3 30.8 115.0 35.4 101.5 36.0 105.0 37.8 101.2 38.2 103.6 39.6 -- alte servicii 100.0 34.7 102.5 35.5 101.5 36.1 102.3 36.9 101.0 37.3 102.1 38.0 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm. publice si al IFSLSG 103.0 41.5 111.5 46.2 102.8 47.5 106.0 50.4 102.7 51.8 104.8 54.2 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 104.5 32.6 110.0 35.8 102.7 36.8 106.3 39.1 102.5 40.1 105.0 42.1 Formarea bruta a capitalului 121.4 145.3 113.0 164.2 112.2 184.3 108.5 200.0 111.2 222.3 106.0 235.5 Formarea bruta de capital fix 127.0 156.6 108.7 170.3 114.5 195.0 107.0 208.6 112.0 233.6 105.3 246.0 Variaţia stocurilor (Contrib.proc. la creşterea PIB real) -1.9% -0.9% -0.5% Export net (contrib.proc la creşterea PIB real) -6.0% -82.3 -69.0 -3.3% -85.5 -69.9 -2.6% -85.6 -70.9 Export de bunuri si servicii 122.7 151.1 105.5 159.4 110.0 175.4 104.2 182.6 109.9 200.7 102.7 206.2 Import de bunuri si servicii 128.9 233.4 97.9 228.4 114.2 260.9 96.8 252.6 113.4 286.4 96.8 277.1 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 110.4 378.5 108.2 409.7 107.2 439.2 105.4 462.8 106.7 493.7 104.1 514.0 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 112.0 309.3 107.6 332.9 108.2 360.2 105.2 378.9 107.6 407.6 103.9 423.6 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 103.8 69.2 111.1 76.8 102.8 79.0 106.2 83.9 102.7 86.1 104.9 90.4 15  - continuare - - mld. lei si indici - 2011 2012 2013 Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare Indice Valoare de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ de la preţ volum 2010 preţ curent volum 2011 preţ curent volum 2012 preţ curent PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 106.2 720.9 106.4 766.8 106.0 813.0 105.4 856.8 106.0 907.8 104.5 948.7 Cererea interna 107.5 806.1 103.7 835.8 107.1 895.4 103.0 922.2 106.9 985.7 102.3 1008.7 Cheltuielile pentru consum final 105.8 543.6 103.4 562.2 105.6 593.6 103.0 611.4 105.3 644.1 102.7 661.4 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodăriilor 106.0 500.5 103.4 517.5 105.8 547.7 103.0 564.1 105.6 595.6 102.7 611.7 Cheltuiala cu consumul final al populaţiei 106.5 444.9 103.4 460.0 106.1 488.0 103.0 502.8 105.9 532.5 102.7 547.1 -- cumpărări de mărfuri 108.0 298.8 103.5 309.2 107.4 332.1 103.1 342.4 107.0 366.4 102.8 376.6 -- servicii 106.7 67.7 104.1 70.5 106.2 74.9 103.7 77.7 106.0 82.3 103.4 85.1 -- autoconsum si piaţa ţărănească 101.0 40.0 102.9 41.1 101.0 41.6 102.4 42.5 101.2 43.1 102.2 44.0 -- alte servicii 101.0 38.4 101.8 39.1 101.0 39.5 101.7 40.2 101.5 40.8 101.5 41.4 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm. publice si al IFSLSG 102.5 55.6 103.5 57.5 103.6 59.6 102.9 61.3 102.8 63.1 102.4 64.6 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm. publice 102.5 43.1 103.5 44.6 103.0 46.0 102.9 47.3 102.5 48.5 102.4 49.7 Formarea bruta a capitalului 111.5 262.5 104.2 273.6 110.3 301.7 103.0 310.7 109.9 341.6 101.7 347.4 Formarea bruta de capital fix 111.0 273.1 105.0 286.7 109.8 314.8 104.0 327.4 109.5 358.5 103.0 369.3 Variaţia stocurilor (Contrib. proc. la creşterea PIB real) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Export net (contrib. proc la creşterea PIB real) -2.1% -85.2 -69.0 -1.7% -82.3 -65.3 -1.5% -77.9 -60.0 Export de bunuri si servicii 109.9 226.6 102.8 232.9 109.4 254.8 103.2 262.9 108.8 286.0 102.8 294.2 Import de bunuri si servicii 112.5 311.8 96.8 301.9 111.7 337.2 97.3 328.2 110.9 363.9 97.3 354.1 Cheltuielile pentru consum final 105.8 543.6 103.4 562.2 105.6 593.6 103.0 611.4 105.3 644.1 102.7 661.4 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 106.4 450.9 103.4 466.1 106.1 494.3 103.0 509.2 105.9 539.0 102.7 553.8 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 102.6 92.7 103.6 96.1 103.4 99.3 103.0 102.3 102.7 105.0 102.5 107.6 16  CONTRIBUTII LA CRESTEREA REALA A PRODUSULUI INTERN BRUT -%- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Produs intern brut 4.2 7.9 6.0 9.1 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 Cererea interna 8.6 14.0 14.8 15.2 9.8 9.0 8.3 7.8 7.4 Cheltuielile pentru consum final 8.2 8.1 8.5 8.8 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.8 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodăriilor 7.3 9.0 8.0 8.5 5.6 5.0 4.2 3.9 3.7 Cheltuiala cu consumul final a populaţiei 6.7 8.6 7.5 8.2 5.4 4.8 4.0 3.7 3.5 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm. publice si al IFSLSG 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm publice 0.9 -0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Formarea bruta a capitalului 0.4 5.9 6.2 6.3 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.6 Formarea bruta de capital fix 2.8 4.5 7.4 8.2 4.9 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.6 Variaţia stocurilor -2.3 1.5 -1.2 -1.9 -0.9 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Export net -4.4 -6.2 -8.7 -6.0 -3.3 -2.6 -2.1 -1.7 -1.5 Export de bunuri si servicii 2.8 3.5 2.8 6.9 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 Import de bunuri si servicii 7.2 9.7 11.5 12.9 6.4 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.2 Cheltuielile pentru consumul final 8.2 8.1 8.5 8.8 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.8 Cheltuielile cu consumul privat 6.8 8.7 7.6 8.2 5.4 4.8 4.0 3.7 3.5 Cheltuielile cu consumul guvernamental 1.4 -0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 17  STRUCTURA PRODUSULUI INTERN BRUT PE ELEMENTE DE CHELTUIELI -%- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Cererea interna 110.2 112.0 114.3 113.7 111.8 110.4 109.0 107.6 106.3 Cheltuielile pentru consum final 87.5 85.6 84.7 81.1 78.1 75.7 73.3 71.4 69.7 Consumul individual efectiv al gospodăriilor 78.8 78.0 77.0 74.1 71.5 69.5 67.5 65.8 64.5 Cheltuiala cu consumul final al populaţiei 68.4 67.7 67.1 64.9 63.0 61.6 60.0 58.7 57.7 Cheltuiala cu consumul individual al adm. publice si al IFSLSG 10.4 10.3 9.9 9.2 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.2 6.8 Consumul colectiv efectiv al adm publice 8.8 7.6 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.2 Formarea bruta a capitalului 22.6 26.5 29.6 32.5 33.7 34.7 35.7 36.3 36.6 Formarea bruta de capital fix 23.1 25.6 30.5 33.7 35.2 36.2 37.4 38.2 38.9 Variaţia stocurilor -0.4 0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.3 Export net -10.2 -12.0 -14.3 -13.7 -11.8 -10.4 -9.0 -7.6 -6.3 Export de bunuri si servicii 33.2 32.3 30.4 31.6 30.8 30.4 30.4 30.7 31.0 Import de bunuri si servicii 43.4 44.3 44.7 45.2 42.6 40.8 39.4 38.3 37.3 PRODUSUL INTERN BRUT 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0