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nt scenario'!L77 ='Adjustment scenario'!M77 0.38 Structural balance ='Adjustment scenario'!G78 ='Adjustment scenario'!H78 ='Adjustment scenario'!I78 ='Adjustment scenario'!J78 ='Adjustment scenario'!K78 ='Adjustment scenario'!L78 ='Adjustment scenario'!M78 0.4 Debt ='Adjustment scenario'!G57 ='Adjustment scenario'!H57 ='Adjustment scenario'!I57 ='Adjustment scenario'!J57 ='Adjustment scenario'!K57 ='Adjustment scenario'!L57 ='Adjustment scenario'!M57 0.42 Average annual adjustment over the plan period =AVERAGE(G19:J19) 0.44 Average annual adjustment over the adjustment period =IF(F5=4,AVERAGE(G19:J19),AVERAGE(G19:M19)) 0.46 Average net primary expenditure growth over the plan period =AVERAGE(G20:J20) 0.48 Average net primary expenditure growth over the adjustment period =IF(F5=4,AVERAGE(G20:J20),AVERAGE(G20:M20)) 0.5 In case of a plan with no extension, both the plan period and the adjustment period last 4 years. In case of a plan with extension, the plan period remains 4 years while the adjustment period lasts 7 years. Morever, in case of extension, if neither the deficit benchmark nor the deficit resilience safeguard are binding, the values in G24 and G25 (and G26 and G27) are the same. However, if the benchmark or the safeguard is binding, the values in those cells can be different. 0.52 0.54 Table 5 - DSA-based adjustment * 0.56 No extension Extension 0.58 Number of years of adjustment 4 7 0.6 Annual adjustment 1.22 0.74 0.62 Probability that debt decreases 59.819999694824 57 0.64 * The adjustment in this table does not account for the minimum adjustment of 0.5 pp. of GDP as a benchmark nor for the debt sustainability and deficit resillience safeguards. 0.66 0.68 Table 6 - Reference trajectory 0.7 Average (2025-28) 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0.72 Adjustment in a plan without extension 0.74 Net primary expenditure growth 4.2923512163391 4.8867105913391 4.4355948413391 4.0624860913391 3.7846133413391 0.76 Annual change in SPB 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 0.78 Adjustment in a plan with extension 0.8 Net primary expenditure growth 5.5180207399313 6.1142340308123 5.6631182808123 5.2900095308123 5.0047211172884 4.8485180308123 4.6706222808123 4.5261725308123 0.82 Annual change in SPB 0.74072493900666 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74289975602663 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.1 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.2 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.28 1.3 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.38 1.4 1.42 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.5 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58 1.6 Input data Country RO Last year before the adjustment 2024 Last year of adjustment =C5+'Criteria results'!$F$5 Key assumptions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 Fiscal assumptions (% of GDP) Key fiscal variables (based on the Commission 2024 spring forecast ("SF 2024") T+2 forecast and the June 2024 report prepared under Art. 126(3) of the Treaty) Debt 48.4689 47.48942 48.80021 50.91009 Structural primary balance ('+' means 'surplus') -4.831069 -4.441976 -4.009534 -4.406895 One-off and other temporary measures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Stock-flow adjustments (without exchange rate effect) -0.9471575 -0.4755923 0.7323648 -0.2001228 -5.88E-15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Stock-flow adjustment (total) -0.6262887 0.0201499 0.7153887 -0.0086858 0.0237779 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Subject to an excessive deficit procedure (EDP) (0-no/1-yes) 1 1 1 Cost of ageing and selected public revenue (based on the Commission-Council 2024 Ageing Report ("AR 2024")) Total ageing cost (net of taxes on pensions) =(C21+C22+C23+C24-C25) =(D21+D22+D23+D24-D25) =(E21+E22+E23+E24-E25) =(F21+F22+F23+F24-F25) =(G21+G22+G23+G24-G25) =(H21+H22+H23+H24-H25) =(I21+I22+I23+I24-I25) =(J21+J22+J23+J24-J25) =(K21+K22+K23+K24-K25) =(L21+L22+L23+L24-L25) =(M21+M22+M23+M24-M25) =(N21+N22+N23+N24-N25) =(O21+O22+O23+O24-O25) =(P21+P22+P23+P24-P25) =(Q21+Q22+Q23+Q24-Q25) =(R21+R22+R23+R24-R25) =(S21+S22+S23+S24-S25) =(T21+T22+T23+T24-T25) =(U21+U22+U23+U24-U25) =(V21+V22+V23+V24-V25) =(W21+W22+W23+W24-W25) of which: Public pensions expenditure 0 8.51895 8.34066 9.26299 10.53856 10.52322 10.55332 10.55481 10.51125 10.44611 10.35448 10.28366 10.27962 10.31172 10.2827 10.20208 10.19486 10.19546 10.23395 10.30969 10.38592 Health care expenditure 0 4.44799 4.46361 4.47975 4.51253 4.5441 4.57565 4.60698 4.63699 4.66826 4.69936 4.73066 4.76077 4.78859 4.81646 4.84273 4.86738 4.89171 4.91249 4.93356 4.95677 Long-term care expenditure 0 0.34609 0.34863 0.35004 0.35781 0.36631 0.37969 0.38814 0.39739 0.40736 0.41695 0.427 0.43721 0.44797 0.45877 0.46877 0.47829 0.48818 0.49869 0.50968 0.51992 Education & unemployment benefits expenditure 0 2.47194 2.46502 2.467 2.48138 2.49902 2.51437 2.52716 2.5386 2.54634 2.54894 2.54689 2.54154 2.53629 2.5321 2.52923 2.52669 2.52366 2.51886 2.51264 2.50627 Taxes on pensions 0 0.17918 0.16079 0.20161 0.22668 0.2269 0.23282 0.23149 0.22885 0.23533 0.22829 0.22217 0.22524 0.22081 0.21402 0.21047 0.21628 0.21802 0.21921 0.22162 0.22133 Property income 0.5679675 1.042417 1.033931 1.025445 1.016958 1.008473 0.9999866 0.9915006 0.9830146 0.9745287 0.9660427 0.9575567 0.9490708 0.9405848 0.9320988 0.9236128 0.9151269 0.9066409 0.8981549 0.8896689 0.881183 Real GDP growth assumptions (based on SF 2024 T+10 projections and AR 2024 projections) Actual GDP Growth rate 5.708887 4.107033 2.148471 3.301327 2.919555 2.828399 2.738962 2.321088 2.02132 1.98833 1.988791 2.042089 2.034472 1.975107 1.915744 1.856381 1.760289 1.606295 1.46834 1.321163 1.288693 Level (billions, national currency) 889.0877 Potential GDP Growth rate 2.524266 2.583742 2.868859 2.761576 2.707396 2.401189 2.172989 2.040025 2.021315 1.988328 1.988787 2.042092 2.03447 1.975107 1.915744 1.856382 1.760291 1.606298 1.468342 1.321164 1.288689 Level (billions, national currency) 913.8336 Interest rates (SF 2024, %) Nominal implicit interest rate on debt 3.469995 3.590007 4.826077 4.537611 4.180669 Short-term nominal interest rate 6.16 7.5 5.721042 4.964375 Long-term nominal interest rate 7.48 6.71 6.636583 6.936851 Bloomberg data, country-specific forward market rates. Inflation (SF 2024, %) GDP deflator (national currency) 5.445506 13.20106 12.16513 7.261307 5.29927 Net primary expenditure growth (SF 2024, %) Net primary expenditure growth 7.3756808075748 15.018700672858 11.792160026329 14.320834664248 Additional parameters Sources Fiscal multiplier 0.75 Carnot, N. and de Castro, F. (2015), “The Discretionary Fiscal Effort: an Assessment of Fiscal Policy and its Output Effect”, European Economy, Economic Papers, No. 543. Budget balance semi-elasticity 0.321 Mourre, G. et al. (2019), "The Semi-Elasticities Underlying the Cyclically-Adjusted Budget Balance: An Update and Further Analysis", European Economy, Discussion Paper, No. 098. Long-term nominal interest rate (T+10 convergence value) 6.91385 Bloomberg data, country-specific forward market rates. Short-term nominal interest rate (T+10 convergence value) 4.16426 Bloomberg data, country-specific forward market rates. Long-term nominal interest rate (T+30 convergence value) 4.5 DSM 2023 Short-term nominal interest rate (T+30 convergence value) 2.25 DSM 2023 Share of short-term debt in total government debt 0.0555826 Eurostat, average shares over the 3 last available years. Share of long-term debt in total government debt =1-C57 Eurostat, average shares over the 3 last available years. Share of long-term debt that matures every year (T+10 convergence value) 0.10144519 ECB, country-specific historical average shares over the 6 last available years. For post-programme countries (CY, El , IE and PT), the redemption profile of official loans has been taken into account for the computation of the share of long-term debt that matures every year. For these countries, changing this parameter would not affect debt projections. GDP deflator (national currency) (T+10 convergence value) 4.14 Bloomberg data, inflation swaps. GDP deflator (national currency) (T+30 convergence value) 2.5 Central bank inflation target Share of primary expenditure in GDP in 2024 39.103122968147 SF24 Share of outstanding debt in total debt in 2022 0.74843386168961 Derived from the model and made consistent with the short-term forecast. Share of rolled-over long-term debt in 2022 0.0828615931717 Derived from the model and made consistent with the short-term forecast. Share of rolled-over short-term debt in 2022 0.045179094627814 Derived from the model and made consistent with the short-term forecast. Share of new long-term debt in 2022 0.11715817965349 Derived from the model and made consistent with the short-term forecast. Share of new short-term debt in 2022 0.0063672919147044 Derived from the model and made consistent with the short-term forecast. Stochastic projections: ranges around adjustment scenario T+1 T+2 T+3 T+4 T+5 Difference between debt level in 50th and 10th percentiles of the distribution -9.3512077331543 -12.607349395752 -14.925121307373 -16.739044189453 -18.576665878296 Difference between debt level in 50th and 30th percentiles of the distribution -3.7757759094238 -5.3273887634277 -6.1312522888184 -6.9541778564453 -7.4889793395996 Difference between debt level in 70th and 50th percentiles of the distribution 4.1817054748535 5.7588348388672 7.2776985168457 8.4955291748047 9.5534324645996 Difference between debt level in 90th and 50th percentiles of the distribution 10.377098083496 14.824100494385 18.075016021729 20.900192260742 23.475437164307 Baseline NFPC Country ='Input data'!C3 Key years ='Input data'!B5 =+'Input data'!C5 Last year of adjustment =+C5+'Criteria results'!$F$5 Key assumptions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 Fiscal assumptions (% of GDP) Structural primary balance ('+' means 'surplus') ='Input data'!C13 ='Input data'!D13 ='Input data'!E13 ='Input data'!F13 =F12 =G12 =H12 =I12 =J12 =K12 =L12 =M12 =N12 =O12 =P12 =Q12 =R12 =S12 =T12 =U12 =V12 One-off and other temporary measures ='Input data'!C14 ='Input data'!D14 ='Input data'!E14 ='Input data'!F14 ='Input data'!G14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Stock flow adjustments (without exchange rate effect) ='Input data'!C15 ='Input data'!D15 ='Input data'!E15 ='Input data'!F15 ='Input data'!G15 ='Input data'!H15 ='Input data'!I15 ='Input data'!J15 ='Input data'!K15 ='Input data'!L15 ='Input data'!M15 ='Input data'!N15 ='Input data'!O15 ='Input data'!P15 ='Input data'!Q15 ='Input data'!R15 ='Input data'!S15 ='Input data'!T15 ='Input data'!U15 ='Input data'!V15 ='Input data'!W15 ='Input data'!B19 Total ageing cost (net of taxes on pensions) ='Input data'!C20 ='Input data'!D20 ='Input data'!E20 ='Input data'!F20 ='Input data'!G20 ='Input data'!H20 ='Input data'!I20 ='Input data'!J20 ='Input data'!K20 ='Input data'!L20 ='Input data'!M20 ='Input data'!N20 ='Input data'!O20 ='Input data'!P20 ='Input data'!Q20 ='Input data'!R20 ='Input data'!S20 ='Input data'!T20 ='Input data'!U20 ='Input data'!V20 ='Input data'!W20 ='Input data'!B26 ='Input data'!C26 ='Input data'!D26 ='Input data'!E26 ='Input data'!F26 ='Input data'!G26 ='Input data'!H26 ='Input data'!I26 ='Input data'!J26 ='Input data'!K26 ='Input data'!L26 ='Input data'!M26 ='Input data'!N26 ='Input data'!O26 ='Input data'!P26 ='Input data'!Q26 ='Input data'!R26 ='Input data'!S26 ='Input data'!T26 ='Input data'!U26 ='Input data'!V26 ='Input data'!W26 GDP growth assumptions Actual GDP (real) Level ='Input data'!C31 =C22*(D23/100+1) =D22*(E23/100+1) =E22*(F23/100+1) =F22*(G23/100+1) =IF(AND(H49>1,G49>1),IF(AND(H49>0,G49>0),H26*(H50/100+1),0)+IF(H49>0,G22*(1+H51/100),0)-G22*(1+'Input data'!H30/100),IF(H49=1,H26,G22*(1+H51/100))) =IF(AND(I49>1,H49>1),IF(AND(I49>0,H49>0),I26*(I50/100+1),0)+IF(I49>0,H22*(1+I51/100),0)-H22*(1+'Input data'!I30/100),IF(I49=1,I26,H22*(1+I51/100))) =IF(AND(J49>1,I49>1),IF(AND(J49>0,I49>0),J26*(J50/100+1),0)+IF(J49>0,I22*(1+J51/100),0)-I22*(1+'Input data'!J30/100),IF(J49=1,J26,I22*(1+J51/100))) =IF(AND(