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EUROPEAN COMMISSION ROMANIA: PRIOR GUIDANCE TABLES This document contains three tables. Table 1 provides the net nominal expenditure growth and the corresponding change in the structural primary balance ratio in case of a 4-year adjustment period. It also indicates the impact, if any, of the benchmark and safeguards described in Art. 7, 8 and 6(d) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 on top of the requirements based on the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)-based criteria described in Art. 6(a) and (b) of the same Regulation (1). Table 2 provides the same information as Table 1 in case of a 7-year adjustment period. Finally, Table 3 summarises the main initial conditions and underlying assumptions. Table 1: Reference trajectory for a plan without extension, Romania For a plan without extension (4 years) Average Romania 2025-2028 2025 2026 2027 2028 Net expenditure growth (%) 4.3 4.9 4.4 4.1 3.8 Structural primary balance (% of GDP) -1.4 -3.2 -2.0 -0.7 0.5 Annual change in the structural primary balance (pp. of GDP) 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 of which DSA-based criteria 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22 Impact of the benchmark and safeguards 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Note: The colour code for the annual change in SPB is as follows: - Black normal: requirements complying with the DSA-based criteria; - Red bold: the deficit benchmark as measured in terms of change in the structural primary balance is binding; - Yellow background: the deficit benchmark as measured in terms of change in the structural balance is binding; - Black bold: the debt sustainability safeguard is binding; - Blue italics: the deficit resilience safeguard is binding. (1) By construction, the reference trajectory is in line with the no-backloading principle as described in Art. 6(c) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263. 1 Table 2: Reference trajectory for a plan with extension, Romania For a plan with extension (7 years) Average Average Romania 2025-2028 2025-2031 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Net expenditure growth (%) 5.5 5.2 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 Structural primary balance (% of GDP) -2.6 -1.4 -3.7 -2.9 -2.2 -1.4 -0.7 0.0 0.8 Annual change in the structural primary balance (pp. of GDP) 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 of which DSA-based criteria 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 Impact of the benchmark and safeguards 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Note: The colour code for the annual change in SPB is as follows: - Black normal: requirements complying with the DSA-based criteria; - Red bold: the deficit benchmark as measured in terms of change in the structural primary balance is binding; - Yellow background: the deficit benchmark as measured in terms of change in the structural balance is binding; - Black bold: the debt sustainability safeguard is binding; - Blue italics: the deficit resilience safeguard is binding. Table 3: Main budgetary, macroeconomic and financial variables, Romania Budgetary variables: initial conditions 2023 2024 Government budget balance (% of GDP) -6.6 -6.9 Government debt (% of GDP) 48.8 50.9 Net expenditure growth (%) 11.8 14.3 Structural primary balance (% of GDP) -4.0 -4.4 Main assumptions for a plan without extension (4 years) Assumption Period Change in the cost of ageing (pp. of GDP) 0.0 2028-2038 Stock-flow adjustment (% of GDP) 0.0 2025-2038 average Real GDP growth (%) 2.1 2025-2038 average Inflation (change in the GDP deflator, %) 4.4 2025-2038 average Nominal implicit interest rate (%) 5.6 2025-2038 average Main assumptions for a plan with extension (7 years) Assumption Period Change in the cost of ageing (pp. of GDP) 0.4 2031-2041 Stock-flow adjustment (% of GDP) 0.0 2025-2041 average Real GDP growth (%) 2.0 2025-2041 average Inflation (change in the GDP deflator, %) 4.3 2025-2041 average Nominal implicit interest rate (%) 5.8 2025-2041 average 2